Jump to content


Problem Developing

  • Please log in to reply
40 replies to this topic



    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 19,337 posts

Posted 04 January 2009 - 01:39 PM

Yep that is as rosy as it gets and that still does not put a floor on price until 5 months supply is hit. Take a look at RE history price bottoms when supply hits 5 months or less. No way around this. Well unless the FED buys all the homes. Only problem is the keys for the house will cost $1000 instead of $1. Same as secular bear markets do not make lows on +9 PEs said it in 2002 here at TT and that's why we are here again and we will continue down the road somewhere even if we rally 600 SPX points! another low will be seen until ultra cheap prices and no hope is left. Hey just ask a Japanese person lol.
If it wasn't for Mr bubbles RE atm it would have cleaned the system sooner now it is way worse.

Let me play DA here. Historic valuation models are a loose guide only. In the current environment, the price bottom might be at 7 months or 3. There are a lot of very dynamic factors, none of which have ever been experienced before.

There's nothing to say that things don't get so hot that the market discounts NO excess inventory (I'm not predicting that).

I'd also not be surprised if properties were taken off the market as refi deals are made and as hints of possible firming start circulating. Your inventory might just evaporate not just from increased demand but from removal of supply.

Of course, the discussion is more academic than realistic, as some markets have already bottomed in my view and others are a long, long way from turning up.

Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
You can now follow me on twitter