Closest Analogy to the Current Bear Market
Started by
inamosa
, Apr 16 2009 06:32 PM
27 replies to this topic
#1
inamosa
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 06:32 PM
A woman I greatly respect, Louise Yamada, who is one hell of a technician (IMHO), believes the closest "fractal" or "analogy" to the current bear may be the '37-42 bear market. Please see below for what it looks like and where we may be:
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#2
rkd80
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 06:37 PM
LarryT has also mentioned 1937 as a very probably "fractal". According to that fractal we should be heading down real soon to about 720s.
“be right and sit tight”
#3
IndexTrader
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 06:44 PM
I like Louise Yamada as well. Where did you get the historical chart?
IT
#4
inamosa
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 06:55 PM
I like Louise Yamada as well. Where did you get the historical chart?
IT
I just put it together right now, actually
Will probably be useful
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#5
IndexTrader
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 07:16 PM
I like Louise Yamada as well. Where did you get the historical chart?
IT
I just put it together right now, actually
Will probably be useful
Is it possible to put together one that encompassed let's say 74, 75, and 76? Would be great if you could.
IT
#6
trioderob
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 07:18 PM
I like Louise Yamada as well. Where did you get the historical chart?
IT
I just put it together right now, actually
Will probably be useful
Is it possible to put together one that encompassed let's say 74, 75, and 76? Would be great if you could.
IT
but wasnt the FED much more "hands off"
they did not pump trillions into the system - wont that throw off the dynamics of the whole thing?
#7
rkd80
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 07:18 PM
LarryT has also mentioned 1937 as a very probably "fractal". According to that fractal we should be heading down real soon to about 720s.
Oops, no..I believe he used 1974 instead.
“be right and sit tight”
#8
trioderob
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 07:19 PM
I like Louise Yamada as well. Where did you get the historical chart?
IT
I just put it together right now, actually
Will probably be useful
Is it possible to put together one that encompassed let's say 74, 75, and 76? Would be great if you could.
IT
but wasnt the FED much more "hands off" in the 30s - early 40s ?
they did not pump trillions into the system - wont that throw off the dynamics of the whole thing?
#9
inamosa
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 07:35 PM
I like Louise Yamada as well. Where did you get the historical chart?
IT
I just put it together right now, actually
Will probably be useful
Is it possible to put together one that encompassed let's say 74, 75, and 76? Would be great if you could.
IT
Tell me what years, exactly, you want, after looking at this:
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#10
Data
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Posted 16 April 2009 - 07:46 PM
She has been comparing the market to 1937-1938 all the way down so it's not as if she just changed her view.
The Fed moved rates back up in 1931-1932 when it appeared the economy was recovering. They doubled bank reserve requirements in 1937-1938. Both times, the economy tanked and they reversed course.
