5 replies to this topic

[Tor]

The Coppock indicator, developed over a half century ago by Edwin Coppock, is a lagging indicator but, when triggered, has a very respectable history of isolating long-term equity market lows (a “buy” signal is generated when the indicator falls below the “0” line and then turns higher). We traced the first “buy” signal back to 1918. Since then, there have been 18 correct signals and only three false ones. This indicator moves very slowly (it is essentially a longterm momentum indicator), but it helps to determine when the market has gone too far based on bearish (fear) psychology. It does not issue very many signals; thus, we take note when something emerges on the Coppock charts. Generally, the deeper the decline on the indicator, the stronger the bullish signal. The 2008 trough was as deep as the Coppock had been since 1938. In addition to the Coppock, we are resposting the long-term momentum chart that depicts the oversold extremes reached last year. While it upticked slightly in June, it reached extremes in 2008 that had been reached only four times previously beginning in 1903. Historically, 1903, 1915, 1932 and 1974 were significant lows that held on subsequent retests. Figure 3: Long-term chart of the DJIA. From Barclays capital.

[Woody]

The Coppock indicator, developed over a half century ago by Edwin Coppock, is a lagging indicator but, when
triggered, has a very respectable history of isolating long-term equity market lows (a “buy” signal is generated when
the indicator falls below the “0” line and then turns higher). We traced the first “buy” signal back to 1918. Since then,
there have been 18 correct signals and only three false ones. This indicator moves very slowly (it is essentially a longterm
momentum indicator), but it helps to determine when the market has gone too far based on bearish (fear)
psychology. It does not issue very many signals; thus, we take note when something emerges on the Coppock charts.
Generally, the deeper the decline on the indicator, the stronger the bullish signal. The 2008 trough was as deep as
the Coppock had been since 1938.

In addition to the Coppock, we are resposting the long-term momentum chart that depicts the oversold extremes
reached last year. While it upticked slightly in June, it reached extremes in 2008 that had been reached only four
times previously beginning in 1903. Historically, 1903, 1915, 1932 and 1974 were significant lows that held on
subsequent retests.

Figure 3: Long-term chart of the DJIA.
From Barclays capital.

I subscribe to sentimenttrader.com, Jason G. who runs the site sends out daily emails; his site has a wealth of knowledge but his statistical reviews are excellent.

He has used data from the turn of the century to statistically prove that trading results based on Golden Crosses and the "Coppock" indicator are no better than random. Both of these things have been discussed ad nauseum here and on CNBC etc the danger is getting involved in the "Hype" rather than doing the statistical check.

[mss]

Figure 3: Long-term chart of the DJIA.
From Barclays capital.

TOR , where do I find Figure 3: Long-term chart of the DJIA. From Barclays capital. ???
mss

[skott]

and this "signal" came weeks ago maybe even a month or more ago.

[nimblebear]

and this "signal" came weeks ago maybe even a month or more ago.

it doesnt say whether there could be retest or not. So we could still retest the deep lows bounce and continue on for it to be still intact. since its long term. doesnt much help day traders or swing traders. pretty painful if you ask me.

[dasein]

Mark Young is something of an expert on the Coppock, IIRC - I would love to hear his input on this... klh