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The Trap in VIX


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#1 Stickan

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Posted 21 July 2009 - 05:06 AM

Another chart that tells a story.
After an exact test of the trendline from 2007 and simultanious test of the 78,6% retracement of the whole (VIX) upmove, of cource VIX made bounce - and trapped a lot of people above the blue resistance line.
In a powerful move down, we test the Fibonacci level again (Robert Miner who popularized the 78,6% level many ears ago mentions that this is perhaps the most important fib level, being the last support for a correction - and I tend to agree)
At the same time we see a minor break of the trendline which is followed by a test of that break and then the real break.
This is calssic charting

First the level i tested (A)
Then we have a break failure (TRAP)
Followed by a new test of support(A) which is brokenm in a pre-break (1)
Which is tested (2)
And finally the "real" break. (3)
After seeing story so many times we "know" that after a failure break followed by a "real" break we get a speedy decline.
So let's see what happens this time......

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#2 humble1

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Posted 21 July 2009 - 05:12 AM

stickan: nice post. especially the (1), (2), (3) and the explanation on how to tell when a break is real and not just a stoprunner. works well in ALL timeframes. no TA tape read is more reliable, imho. i have used it for a long time.

#3 da_cheif

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Posted 21 July 2009 - 07:13 AM

http://siliconinvest...a...20goin to 8

#4 The End

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Posted 21 July 2009 - 08:23 AM

Chief,

One of your followers is relying on Barton Biggs?

This is what da man said last May.

http://online.wsj.co...8121933879.html
NONE of what I type should be taken as financial advice.

#5 da_cheif

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Posted 21 July 2009 - 08:37 AM

Chief,

One of your followers is relying on Barton Biggs?

This is what da man said last May.

http://online.wsj.co...8121933879.html



my followers????...lol....didnt know i had any.....are you one???? :D