Whether or not we make new lows over the next 9 months or so...or just test the lows with a higher low....I will make a prediction that most mutual funds will close up shop and ETF's will be the darlings....which is good for us traders....it will also keep volatility in a constant range...
We will NEVER see VIX down at 10 again...at least not in the next 5 to 8 years....a long period of VIX trading between 20 and 30/35 would be ideal...
...The crooks running mutual funds are about to get there pink slips...and as traders... we should/ will benefit...
Prediction
Started by
eminimee
, Aug 07 2009 02:29 PM
13 replies to this topic
#1
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 07 August 2009 - 02:29 PM
#2
TMN
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Posted 07 August 2009 - 02:33 PM
i agree. fin services will undergo a huge structural change. it has already started in fact but politics makes sure it's gonna be a long drag...
#3
isaac613
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Posted 07 August 2009 - 02:33 PM
You saying we at a top?
Whether or not we make new lows over the next 9 months or so...or just test the lows with a higher low....I will make a prediction that most mutual funds will close up shop and ETF's will be the darlings....which is good for us traders....it will also keep volatility in a constant range...
We will NEVER see VIX down at 10 again...at least not in the next 5 to 8 years....a long period of VIX trading between 20 and 30/35 would be ideal...
...The crooks running mutual funds are about to get there pink slips...and as traders... we should/ will benefit...
#4
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 07 August 2009 - 02:35 PM
You saying we at a top?
Whether or not we make new lows over the next 9 months or so...or just test the lows with a higher low....I will make a prediction that most mutual funds will close up shop and ETF's will be the darlings....which is good for us traders....it will also keep volatility in a constant range...
We will NEVER see VIX down at 10 again...at least not in the next 5 to 8 years....a long period of VIX trading between 20 and 30/35 would be ideal...
...The crooks running mutual funds are about to get there pink slips...and as traders... we should/ will benefit...
get lost..
#5
arbman
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Posted 07 August 2009 - 02:38 PM
Real time example, I only make money when my clients make money, this is obviously not a mutual fund, but people demand a lot more than just index trading when they want to see their funds managed and charged by a fund...
So I concur, most will either go with the automated very cheap managed funds --there are such dumb investment funds which will quarterly rebalance your money and weight according to your age obviously, or people will simply do this themselves and stop paying outrageous fees to these mutual funds unless they really deliver exceptional value (over 20% return).
I am not sure about the volatility, the quant funds are becoming extremely efficient in sucking out the volatility from the funds, RT and GS funds are the biggest ones, but there are a lot of delta neutral players in many instruments with infinite number of combinations. As long as the Fed pumps the liquidity without overheating the economy, the volatility will probably remain either stable or go down though...
#6
milbank
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Posted 07 August 2009 - 03:40 PM
If it weren't for the 401K thingies, I'd agree but, the MFs hold that action hostage.
Edited by milbank, 07 August 2009 - 03:40 PM.
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
#7
arbman
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Posted 07 August 2009 - 03:41 PM
If it weren't for the 401K thingies, I'd agree but, the MFs hold that action hostage.
There will be more consolidation, there are funds that offer excellent service with minimal charges, there is no need to have 100s of them though...
#8
isaac613
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Posted 07 August 2009 - 03:43 PM
Here is my prediction. The next two weeks should go down as much as the March rally went up in its first two weeks. Have a good weekend.If it weren't for the 401K thingies, I'd agree but, the MFs hold that action hostage.
#9
milbank
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Posted 07 August 2009 - 03:46 PM
Here is my prediction. The next two weeks should go down as much as the March rally went up in its first two weeks. Have a good weekend.If it weren't for the 401K thingies, I'd agree but, the MFs hold that action hostage.
Was it something I said?
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
#10
eminimee
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- TT Member
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 07 August 2009 - 04:46 PM
Here is my prediction. The next two weeks should go down as much as the March rally went up in its first two weeks. Have a good weekend.If it weren't for the 401K thingies, I'd agree but, the MFs hold that action hostage.
You are on "ignore"...but stay off my threads issac...get lost
