4 replies to this topic

[arbman]

This is using the slower cycles, once below 1105 to test the gap from the Christmas rally, it is over. The FLD setup will lock the prices below the 1105 zone for several weeks, not to mention the cascading setup lower to 1050 minimum...

This slower decline scenario may appear more plausible with another doji or two early next week for some of the oversold intraday measures. But In my opinion, the short term oscillators or o/s indicators will discover new territories on the charts as we are coming out of the most illiquid market environment over the past 52 weeks...

When the volume comes, it should take this market lower, the rapid decline in the new highs already confirmed this in my view from the technical stand point. I find the breadth leadership on vapor volume rather misleading, it was a repeat of the December of 2008 anyway...

Best of luck.

Edited by arbman, 03 January 2010 - 03:33 PM.

[hitoya]

It is going to have some correction at some point. But by looking at Dow going back to 1900 with over 20% decline, it shows that Dow is going to return positive this year from 5% to 35% with a probability of over 70%, and from -5% to 35% with 99.999% probalility.

[arbman]

It is going to have some correction at some point. But by looking at Dow going back to 1900 with over 20% decline, it shows that Dow is going to return positive this year from 5% to 35% with a probability of over 70%, and from -5% to 35% with 99.999% probalility.

I agree, I have a similar projection, I do not think the year will close down and this correction in the first quarter will be the most important discount for the year. I forced it in a lot of ways and I was not really able to get much of negative returns for the year. But we might see the peak in summer...

[jjc]

It is going to have some correction at some point. But by looking at Dow going back to 1900 with over 20% decline, it shows that Dow is going to return positive this year from 5% to 35% with a probability of over 70%, and from -5% to 35% with 99.999% probalility.

I agree, I have a similar projection, I do not think the year will close down and this correction in the first quarter will be the most important discount for the year. I forced it in a lot of ways and I was not really able to get much of negative returns for the year. But we might see the peak in summer...

Given the elections, it would be odd to have the peak in the summer.

[arbman]

I am not bullish until March, let's see whether the bullishness will continue into the declines from here. The prime brokers sold their holdings to the pension funds and now they can take the equity markets lower to rinse and repeat...