13 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Bad News for the Bulls...

[SemiBizz]

Comparison Snapshot.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[diogenes227]

Bad News for the Bulls...

As usual, your charts are so simple and so elegant, they are a wonder to contemplate. Thanks for the posts.

I have a couple of questions. Not sure why this is necessarily bad news for the bulls.

Could that blowout volume be a profit-taking capitulation in a four-day pullback within a steady bull trend -- similar to the pullbacks culminating in volume spikes on 10/1 and 11/19?

After a volume spike like Friday's wouldn't one want to go long this sector if and when the price action pops back above the fast average on the SOX?

Best to you.

[fib_1618]

Could that blowout volume be a profit-taking capitulation in a four-day pullback within a steady bull trend -- similar to the pullbacks culminating in volume spikes on 10/1 and 11/19?

After a volume spike like Friday's wouldn't one want to go long this sector if and when the price action pops back above the fast average on the SOX?

While you're at it...

1) How much weight does it have when one component makes up nearly half of a sectors volume component (Intel).

2) Does heavier then usual volume during OPEX periods provide an asterisk to Wyckoff volume analysis?

I guess the crux of my questions is whether or not it's better to take volume analysis at face value regardless of possible special circumstances that come up from time to time that may give a "false reading"?

Fib

[milbank]

I guess the crux of my questions is whether or not it's better to take volume analysis at face value regardless of possible special circumstances that come up from time to time that may give a "false reading"?

Another way of looking at it is, how much one would have to consider the volume/action of a "special circumstance" involving a "bellweather" stock, like Intel on Friday, in the reading as a sign of the future of the sector.

Edited by milbank, 16 January 2010 - 05:19 PM.

[thespookyone]

Intel looks like some serious distribution that was pre set up-that says something to me. Also, considering the target of that breakdown-I wouldn't touch it long. I'm not a fundamental trader, but retail sales aren't painting too nice a picture here.

Edited by thespookyone, 16 January 2010 - 05:44 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Sorry, not going to take my time to try and educate anyone. That's the work I do on my site. You can take the indicators at face value or not. Volume is Volume. I'm not going to argue my methodology or spend any time trying to convince any skeptics. Other than that... Have a nice 3 day weekend.

[milbank]

Intel looks like some serious distribution that was pre set up-that says something to me. Also, considering the target of that breakdown-I wouldn't touch it long. I'm not a fundamental trader, but retail sales aren't painting too nice a picture here.

You can start with the technical and end with the technical but, as you and I have alluded to, "looking under the hood" might give you a handycap in this bizarre market.

[SemiBizz]

Last Summer I showed charts here on T.T. which indicated how and why this rally could reach 2318 on Nasdaq before it crested. So I cannot be accused of being snarlingly bearish.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=500380

This week we tested 2318 twice without closing over it, furthermore we had an hourly and daily sign of weakness when we could not break previous highs with BLOWOUT Volume.

Until proven otherwise, this looks like a CLASSIC Price Rejection.

So first of all, I"m not surprised by this rally.

Secondly, I don't get more bullish as prices go higher.

Now certainly there are some mixed signals in the market, but that's how tops are made.

If we can break 2318 and close over it, then that proves we can go higher.

In the meantime, it would be pretty STUPID of me to ignore these bearish signals.


Finally, the work I do is much different than most of the T.A. on this site.

To me, Elliot Wave, M.A.s, Trend lines etc. are fine...

But they don't represent a buyer or seller...

They represent an averaging scheme.

That's not what I do.

I identify real sellers and real buyers, not by what they say, but what they DO!!

Edited by SemiBizz, 16 January 2010 - 06:39 PM.

[milbank]

I identify real sellers and real buyers, not by what they say, but what they DO!!

This post has been edited by SemiBizz: Today, 06:39 PM

Yeah, I always look forward to and pay attention to your work T. because I too put a lot of weight on volume as an indicator.