4 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

For those of you who take Fari's service, I have a great "Tell". This worked great in the Bear Market and it's working great today again, as subscribers will note. When the $-weighted SPX P/C is quite high (north of 2.00), but none of the other major indices are in "Buy territory", it's a tell. They almost always just KILL the market the next day. My thinking is that it's some big money who knows that they will be liquidating and who know that they're going to take the market down, so they buy puts in order to minimize the slippage pain. Of course, a less charitable person would say that they're buying puts for their personal accounts but the fact that they're paying up suggests that it's not nefarious but rather forced due to circumstance. Anyway, watch that $-weighted SPX P/C. We do, every day. BTW, this only works in crummy markets, as best as I can tell.

[atlasshrugged]

For those of you who take Fari's service, I have a great "Tell". This worked great in the Bear Market and it's working great today again, as subscribers will note.

When the $-weighted SPX P/C is quite high (north of 2.00), but none of the other major indices are in "Buy territory", it's a tell. They almost always just KILL the market the next day.

My thinking is that it's some big money who knows that they will be liquidating and who know that they're going to take the market down, so they buy puts in order to minimize the slippage pain. Of course, a less charitable person would say that they're buying puts for their personal accounts but the fact that they're paying up suggests that it's not nefarious but rather forced due to circumstance.

Anyway, watch that $-weighted SPX P/C. We do, every day. BTW, this only works in crummy markets, as best as I can tell.

i wonder if we could combine your study with the simple equity put call ratio that i like...

anything below .50 is a sell...we had three consequetive days below .50 on 1-7, 8, and jan 11

the mkt sometimes takes several days to act on it

[q4wer]

Hamzei Analytics Financial How many subscribers do they have now? Last year, they keep on calling corrections ..........

[Cirrus]

Hamzei Analytics Financial


How many subscribers do they have now? Last year, they keep on calling corrections ..........

One thing I've learned about services is that a subscription should be based on high quality information and unique tools and not market calls. Too often bias creeps in to interpretation or there's a tendency to rely on a single indicator that's worked in the past but is no longer working.

[OEXCHAOS]

Fari's stuff is ROBUST. If you're looking for some sort of long-term crystal ball, I'm not so sure he's the place to be but his very short term stuff seems to be pretty good (folks seem to be happy), and his data is voluminous. I'm happy to have it, I can tell you that much. Of course, that's why I reference it in the letter every day. Mark