12 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

You do not have to be a T.A. Expert to see this. Pull up your charting system, set it to monthly. The first thing you can do is toggle the indices DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq.... All of them MONTHLY KEY REVERSALS... #1. THOSE ARE RARE SIGNALS #2. HARD TO FIND A KEY REVERSAL THAT BUCKS THE TREND AND GOES NORTH. #3. You can point out 7/2007 on the SPX, we did go lower then made a higher high in 10/2007. That was at the END of a BULL Market. That's not what is going on here. And even then, we made a LOWER LOW the next month. The signals this market are giving are MORE BEARISH than we had in the Fall of 2008... and that was due to STRUCTURAL Damage to the Global Banking System via Lehman Bros, AIG, etc. We did not see any KEY REVERSALS there in Sept 08. Dismiss these signals at your peril... set your chart to monthly, pull up those indices and see for yourself.

[q4wer]

Thanks for your great work! short term, it is bearish. We had 2009 bear market because the fundemental was wrong. Now with FED and Obama's effort, things should be under control. I don't think that we will go down too much.

[SemiBizz]

There are global events beyond the F'eds and Obama's reach... Believe it or not. The signals we are getting from the equity markets are of a GLOBAL DISRUPTION, centered in Europe, characterized by the Euro.

[goldswinger]

You do not have to be a T.A. Expert to see this. Pull up your charting system, set it to monthly. The first thing you can do is toggle the indices DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq.... All of them MONTHLY KEY REVERSALS...

#1. THOSE ARE RARE SIGNALS

#2. HARD TO FIND A KEY REVERSAL THAT BUCKS THE TREND AND GOES NORTH.

#3. You can point out 7/2007 on the SPX, we did go lower then made a higher high in 10/2007. That was at the END of a BULL Market. That's not what is going on here. And even then, we made a LOWER LOW the next month.


The signals this market are giving are MORE BEARISH than we had in the Fall of 2008... and that was due to STRUCTURAL Damage to the Global Banking System via Lehman Bros, AIG, etc. We did not see any KEY REVERSALS there in Sept 08.

Dismiss these signals at your peril... set your chart to monthly, pull up those indices and see for yourself.

I should also point out the conditions you outlined arose out of "bullish A/D lines", non-divergent A/D lines, etc. as many had pontificated a few weeks back would lead to SPX 1200,etc. I guess bear market rules are comng into play here.

GS.

[SemiBizz]

RED ALERT !!

[SemiBizz]

We closed exactly ONCE over the 2318 target I laid out as the final objective of this rally on 7/16/09

[SemiBizz]

And here is the Bearish Monthly Key Reversal Signal... At a minimum we can expect lower prices in February.

[goldswinger]

And here is the Bearish Monthly Key Reversal Signal...

At a minimum we can expect lower prices in February.

It is also a bearish engulfing candle , one of the most reliable candles in that black art.

GS.

[GreatWarrior]

You do not have to be a T.A. Expert to see this. Pull up your charting system, set it to monthly. The first thing you can do is toggle the indices DJIA, SPX, Nasdaq.... All of them MONTHLY KEY REVERSALS...

Thanks Semi for sharing. Your charts and analysis are truly a beautiful work of art here.

[SemiBizz]

And while the equities are sending these signals... we are on the edge of a very steep cliff in the Eur$...

While I am not a fundamentals expert in Europe or the Currencies, I do see the possibilities or what could happen in a very short period of time in the weekly chart of the Eur$. We are just at the top of a very price unstable "slip zone". These are sort of "black holes" where there is scarce support and resistance history and characterized by extreme price movement.

So take a look and think about it. Whatever is going on with Europe and the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain.

I'm just laying out what can happen if it gets out of hand.