16 replies to this topic

[maineman]

Are posted on my blog. No doubt this has been a snappy bounce back. But the picture is muddy. Volume is muted, there is notable lagging of some key stocks and we're in short term overbought territory already. Summation remains in the danger zone. We could see 1113 on the SPX (cash) but that would be "it". If we go beyond that, then the bulls have won this rebound. Until the signals all line up together I'm not a position player (like from November to last week - that was clear - this is not). Instead I'm a scalper, I'm a trader, I'm a midnight lover. Right now I'm holding some TZA I bought at the lows, off of "S2" mid day. For awhile I felt pretty smart, (i.e. in the money) but then we closed right back on those lows, so I'm "in the break even". Anyway, detailed charts to share on my blog, including several more views of breadth. Note, too, that we snuck back up to the EMA 55 and we're kissing RSI 50 from below, so lots to watch tomorrow. mm

[cycletimer]

Are posted on my blog. No doubt this has been a snappy bounce back. But the picture is muddy. Volume is muted, there is notable lagging of some key stocks and we're in short term overbought territory already. Summation remains in the danger zone. We could see 1113 on the SPX (cash) but that would be "it". If we go beyond that, then the bulls have won this rebound. Until the signals all line up together I'm not a position player (like from November to last week - that was clear - this is not). Instead I'm a scalper, I'm a trader, I'm a midnight lover. Right now I'm holding some TZA I bought at the lows, off of "S2" mid day. For awhile I felt pretty smart, (i.e. in the money) but then we closed right back on those lows, so I'm "in the break even". Anyway, detailed charts to share on my blog, including several more views of breadth. Note, too, that we snuck back up to the EMA 55 and we're kissing RSI 50 from below, so lots to watch tomorrow.

mm

MM,
I am carefully watching the 1120 level as that is the 61.8% Fib retracement of this decline.... to me, that is the max of this bounce..... however, previous important support (before the sell-off ) was 1131.... what's the possibility we go all the way to that level (to confound the bears), kiss it briefly and then fall liek a heavy anvil?
My plans are to short 1115 and 1120 levels with a hard stop at 1133 (to give room for upside slippage if my scenario above takes place)

[fib_1618]

Summation remains in the danger zone

Would you mind elaborating on this "danger zone" concept as you've applied it in your chart?

Fib

[zoropb]

"I'm a scalper, I'm a trader, I'm a midnight lover" I can relate MM Just covered for my 5 1095.75 May have more but I feel like chilling.

Edited by zoropb, 02 February 2010 - 09:48 PM.

[porsche911sg]

Are posted on my blog. No doubt this has been a snappy bounce back. But the picture is muddy. Volume is muted, there is notable lagging of some key stocks and we're in short term overbought territory already. Summation remains in the danger zone. We could see 1113 on the SPX (cash) but that would be "it". If we go beyond that, then the bulls have won this rebound. Until the signals all line up together I'm not a position player (like from November to last week - that was clear - this is not). Instead I'm a scalper, I'm a trader, I'm a midnight lover. Right now I'm holding some TZA I bought at the lows, off of "S2" mid day. For awhile I felt pretty smart, (i.e. in the money) but then we closed right back on those lows, so I'm "in the break even". Anyway, detailed charts to share on my blog, including several more views of breadth. Note, too, that we snuck back up to the EMA 55 and we're kissing RSI 50 from below, so lots to watch tomorrow.

mm

MM,
I am carefully watching the 1120 level as that is the 61.8% Fib retracement of this decline.... to me, that is the max of this bounce..... however, previous important support (before the sell-off ) was 1131.... what's the possibility we go all the way to that level (to confound the bears), kiss it briefly and then fall liek a heavy anvil?
My plans are to short 1115 and 1120 levels with a hard stop at 1133 (to give room for upside slippage if my scenario above takes place)

CT, yes watching this 1110 zone tightly just one to two percent more!!a big short surge could happen.

[maineman]

Cycletimer: It would not surprise me to see this bounce all the way back. That's the risk, given how ST oversold we were. This can happen (it happened a few months ago) and summation remained in a "sell". Then it collapsed. Its all about risk and managing that risk. FIB: When the RSI on the summation gets down to 30 and below I melodramatically call this the "danger zone" because in the past that's where the big collapses come from. "Normally" below 30 on an RSI indicates "oversold". But when I look back at collapses the scary ones come from oversold conditions. Hope that clarifies it. BUT, I would REALLY like your thoughts on this, because you've got such a keen take on summation, MCO, NYAD, etc. I think the reason this area is so dangerous is that summation moves very differently from other indicators. The RSI on a 5 min chart of say, GOOG or SPX can be quite useful in its overbought/oversold manner. But summation is a whole 'nother kettle of fish. mm

[tommyt]

Summation remains in the danger zone

Would you mind elaborating on this "danger zone" concept as you've applied it in your chart?

Fib

Fib, you and I look at the summation in different ways. My current take is if it breaks the July and Nov lows, its won't be good. Its already made a much lower high with the last price highs (divergence). I'm still on the full moon buy from a few days ago, so I'll deal with that in a bit:

MO

[qqqqtrdr]

Cycletimer: It would not surprise me to see this bounce all the way back. That's the risk, given how ST oversold we were. This can happen (it happened a few months ago) and summation remained in a "sell". Then it collapsed. Its all about risk and managing that risk.

FIB: When the RSI on the summation gets down to 30 and below I melodramatically call this the "danger zone" because in the past that's where the big collapses come from. "Normally" below 30 on an RSI indicates "oversold". But when I look back at collapses the scary ones come from oversold conditions. Hope that clarifies it. BUT, I would REALLY like your thoughts on this, because you've got such a keen take on summation, MCO, NYAD, etc.

I think the reason this area is so dangerous is that summation moves very differently from other indicators. The RSI on a 5 min chart of say, GOOG or SPX can be quite useful in its overbought/oversold manner. But summation is a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

mm

I agree with you... It is all about monitoring risk.... Today the participation in rally was good and S&P is leading... If S&P continues to lead with volume this is overall bullish.... Breadth was also good..... I feel we could continue to rise for a while longer.... I expect a top will be a day with a day with QQQQ increasing by at least 1.5%. Such a day would have increased volume of NASDAQ without the NYSE participating. If we break and close above the 50-day MA average tomorrow of the indices, we will likely continue higher a couple more trading days....

Barry

[arbman]

I agree with you... It is all about monitoring risk.... Today the participation in rally was good and S&P is leading... If S&P continues to lead with volume this is overall bullish.... Breadth was also good..... I feel we could continue to rise for a while longer.... I expect a top will be a day with a day with QQQQ increasing by at least 1.5%. Such a day would have increased volume of NASDAQ without the NYSE participating. If we break and close above the 50-day MA average tomorrow of the indices, we will likely continue higher a couple more trading days....

Barry

They looked good, but they were not good enough for an initiation for the points advanced at least.

Does anyone think of a gap down for tomorrow opening?

At least at the open? The close was so o/b, my oscillators could not show it anymore.

[porsche911sg]

I agree with you... It is all about monitoring risk.... Today the participation in rally was good and S&P is leading... If S&P continues to lead with volume this is overall bullish.... Breadth was also good..... I feel we could continue to rise for a while longer.... I expect a top will be a day with a day with QQQQ increasing by at least 1.5%. Such a day would have increased volume of NASDAQ without the NYSE participating. If we break and close above the 50-day MA average tomorrow of the indices, we will likely continue higher a couple more trading days....

Barry

They looked good, but they were not good enough for an initiation for the points advanced at least.

Does anyone think of a gap down for tomorrow opening?

At least at the open? The close was so o/b, my oscillators could not show it anymore.

i think a gap up is on the cards, till es reaches 1107 from here either it breaks back to the 0.618 retracement mark at 1120 , the sell down starts or it goes back to test the highs before crumbling down.