Posted 09 February 2010 - 12:35 AM
IF the market is going to remain range bound, then you are probably right.
However, I would note that markets crash FROM oversold positions.
FWIW --
As for your title -- "Indetermate until global threats clear up" -- as I see it, global geopolitical and economic threats are far more likely to just get worse. Mideast and the EU are looking bad for the foreseeable future. As far as the EU is concerned, Greece may be forced out of the EU even though there is supposedly no law that allows it -- with ST effects. However, their 4th largest economy -- Spain -- is nearing a tipping point.
There is little hope, at this stage, that the EU will bailout any of the 4-5 member countries in crisis NOW. IF they do, you can bet that they see the end of the EU and Euro is a real danger.
"Don't think...LOOK!"
Carl Swenlin, founder of Decision Point and original Fearless Forecasters board.