5 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Here's an overview of how I look at this market long term, intermediate term and short term, fwiw:

Primary Market Trend:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1996-01-28&i=p73030814314&a=181755078&r=1.png

Just to review, the concept of the Seven Sentinels is my own and is based on a very simple but universal principle that I've observed in nature, everywhere I look - and that principle is that internal proceeds external. The Seven Sentinels are internal measures of building pressure and impending market thrust, as I read it. External price movement follows this building pressure, just as exhaling follows inhaling, or a volcano follows the build up of gases below the Earths surface, or a Tsunami follows a major earthquake.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=27&i=p92235038441&a=186847242&r=165.png

Here are the Seven:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p60798747390&a=175879849&r=885.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p16344936446&a=182315848&r=80.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p68570075153&a=189124656&r=57.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p28148468971&a=175879848&r=819.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAHL&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p41253874392&a=182315863&r=729.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p11458048433&a=175879850&r=543.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRINQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p66042166962&a=180438426&r=551.png

Briefly, when all seven are aligned in buy mode and NYMO makes a 28-day high (new qualifier rule), that is an SSBS. An SSSS signal occurs when the seven align on sell and NYMO makes 28-day low.

I called the SSSS of February a "neutral trend" signal, fwiw, because my read of the primary trend still indicates a lot of life left, and I wanted to emphasize that weakness then (as now) should be bought, not sold, by position traders.

Current leadership:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p03227721239&a=185689071&r=801.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SML&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p64828626851&a=193402854&r=1757.png

Current observations:

The market is extremely overbought on hourly and daily as we are approaching the upper band of the channel from early February. But upside momentum is powerful, to say the least. I would conclude that the ST trend is very vulnerable to a strong pullback, but with NYMO and all other internal measures hitting new highs on Friday, the IT trend is very much intact. Some respected cycle analysts are calling for very a very sharp correction this week into the following Monday, and I wouldn't rule that out. BUT imho, this is the time to keep one's eye on the ball - the IT trend, and not lose perspective.

Until we start seeing internal weakness versus price, of which we have none at present, weakness should be used for BUYING, not selling. Just my take. Good trading all. D

Edited by IYB, 07 March 2010 - 03:38 PM.

[atlasshrugged]

this rally is POWERFUL... CHECK OUT THE BTK

[IYB]

this rally is POWERFUL...

CHECK OUT THE BTK

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BTK&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p31341377416&a=193407713&r=5245.png

[Architect]

Nice post, IYB... How is Hawaii? For ST, i still think it's a capitulation and short-covering rally. As TechMan mentioned, we have a dark cloud over the horizon and that's the commercial shorts looming in horizon. In the panic of sunshine, may come the Spring rain... i am not ready to cover just yet. Whenever i see activities defying the technicals, i know it's the emotion - this time greed.

[Architect]

Cobra's market view...

Edited by Architect, 07 March 2010 - 06:10 PM.

[Lee48]

Good read IYB, and your other posts about a second chance to not miss the next short term bull move that we got. It seems these bull moves last 6 to 8 weeks, so we may have 2 to 4 wks left in this one. imho