8 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

they dont believe the bull. they hate the bull. for them any chop higher is killing them. They are looking for any signs of a top, and keep pushing the top out further. If this, then that. Its amazing how psychology works against people. whatever you wanna call it, nobody believes its truly a bull. Everyone is afraid to step in and go long, unless of course they were and have been long since last march. For some of these bears the market defies all logic. Every report is a bad report, yet the market keeps climbing. I have a theory. When all the good reports, become truly good reports, and the market doesn't rally on the good news much, then it will be a "top." Until then, if it walks like bull, runs like a bull, even if it looks "exhausted" its still a bull. It doesn't matter that is pumped and primed by paper printed money or money that doesn't exist, or money that will be devalued by 50% in 5 or 10 years or whatever. i think whoever called SNP to go to 1200 this year, may prove correct, if not perhaps even be low. Im hearing reports of things improving from the very same people I told you over 2 or 3 years ago, were doing miserably before the market topped in 07. I have no clue where the business is coming from. Im not sure my customers really do. will they b hiring ? not likely. many have told me they have now learned to work with 50% less of everything, (capital, credit, people, business incoming) and most importantly SURVIVE exceptionally dire situations. Situations they thought would take them out. And long and deep retractions in business. Conditions could look bleak to a lot of people. Especially the unemployed or to people who see how bloated the debt is from states and cities and our own government. To others, it represents opportunity. Im not calling anything here. Im just reporting from what I hear from my customers. I'm neither optimistic or pessimistic about what I hear. Im totally agnostic. I do beleive it will take far longer than people expect for this country to once again, achieve near full employment. Its going to be hard. Especially when people see the stock market rising. This dichotomy will be stark. I believe even folks in DC believe that healthcare would have been passed by now were it not for the bad economy. I think what this points too is that while we are living in these hard times, it becomes especially hard to see the "forest for the trees." Even a lot of otherwise good TA has not worked out so hot in some cases. You really just needed to place some bets in march and just let it ride. Oh how 20/20 hindsight is so glorius. i think many bears could even become more despondent in the weeks and months ahead.

[CallMeIshmael]

they dont believe the bull. they hate the bull. for them any chop higher is killing them. They are looking for any signs of a top, and keep pushing the top out further. If this, then that.

Count me as one of them. Right now I'm just sitting it out waiting for the bulls to run out of bull [bleeeep].

[tommyt]

Fridays gap/low a good bench for now...summation rolling, MA's rolling...of course, always different for the scalpers. Watch the Rut, the leader.

Edited by tommyt, 08 March 2010 - 10:18 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

I think you're right. I've been saying, we need to worry about good news, not bad news. If the news gets really good, we'll get shorts covering and then the liquidity will start to dry up... BTW, the word from the wine and hardware sources around here is that things are looking up. I'm not sure about more luxury stuff. Mark

[SemiBizz]

I've been saying, we need to worry about good news, not bad news. If the news gets really good, we'll get shorts covering and then the liquidity will start to dry up...

Mark

What's not to like? a year or so ago we were facing Armageddon, the banks were going broke and economy was in free fall.

yoy comparisions for revenues and earnings are going positive, Housing prices are picking up a bit, We'll see employment pick up this spring, and SRS just hit an all time low, so there's no commercial R.E. problem, right?

Whatever illusion they need.



If it feels good to be long with a loaded gun to the side of your head, maybe go to Vegas, you might get lucky...



I'm thinking about it !!

Edited by SemiBizz, 08 March 2010 - 11:00 AM.

[souelle6]

Semi Biz I agree with you on many levels... Many of the bears on this board make ST, MT trend trades yet they place their bets based on a fundamental view that the system is a "house of cards" ....to me this makes little sense... I think that considering yourself a bear or bull is detirmental for all but long term trading... In my opinion if you label yourself one or the other you hold inherent bias on every news piece, every market movement... Jesse Livermore, Paul Tudor Jones and many other legends have stated again and again that a sign of a rookie trader or someone who doesn't know what they are doing is one who asks, "are you a bear or bull?" or "where are you long (or short) from?" even Keynes said, "when the facts change what do you do sir" and undoubtedly a ST or MT uptrend is a fact... Personally it is my tastes to think in terms of probability, given how the market is reacting what is the probability of an uptrend or downtrend continuing... From then on its about cutting your losses and letting your winners ride... Which is inherently more difficult if you have a mid term or long term label to your view... Those who label themselves as such really add no value to me on these forums (see espresso's post made at 4 AM eastern time today)

Edited by souelle6, 08 March 2010 - 11:06 AM.

[gm_general]

I look at it this way - you're living in the shadow of Mt. Vesuvius. You know that one day it will blow its stack, and being an attentive fellow, you keep alert of the current situation, but mostly you are enjoying the nice sunny day. Its a mathematical fact that the monetary system we have is a giant Ponzi scheme, but what are you going to do about it? So is just about every other monetary system on the planet. Did you know that of the cost of the average thing you buy, about 50% of the cost is due to interest charged on its components and intermediate products? So where does the money come from to pay all that interest? More borrowing. Which requires more interest payments. If the velocity of money is high enough, it can compensate and keep the game going longer, but what has it come to now, like 1.5? Plus the M1 multiplier has hit a new low, like .8 flat. And there is $52T of total US debt, enough that servicing it costs so much that it created negative growth last year, though that was 5 years ahead of schedule. All of which, though fascinating, is largely impractical as information to trade on.

[zman]

I look at it this way - you're living in the shadow of Mt. Vesuvius. You know that one day it will blow its stack, and being an attentive fellow, you keep alert of the current situation, but mostly you are enjoying the nice sunny day.

Its a mathematical fact that the monetary system we have is a giant Ponzi scheme, but what are you going to do about it? So is just about every other monetary system on the planet. Did you know that of the cost of the average thing you buy, about 50% of the cost is due to interest charged on its components and intermediate products? So where does the money come from to pay all that interest? More borrowing. Which requires more interest payments. If the velocity of money is high enough, it can compensate and keep the game going longer, but what has it come to now, like 1.5? Plus the M1 multiplier has hit a new low, like .8 flat. And there is $52T of total US debt, enough that servicing it costs so much that it created negative growth last year, though that was 5 years ahead of schedule.

All of which, though fascinating, is largely impractical as information to trade on.

indeed that puts it in the proper context

[CallMeIshmael]

I look at it this way - you're living in the shadow of Mt. Vesuvius. You know that one day it will blow its stack, and being an attentive fellow, you keep alert of the current situation, but mostly you are enjoying the nice sunny day.

Its a mathematical fact that the monetary system we have is a giant Ponzi scheme, but what are you going to do about it? So is just about every other monetary system on the planet. Did you know that of the cost of the average thing you buy, about 50% of the cost is due to interest charged on its components and intermediate products? So where does the money come from to pay all that interest? More borrowing. Which requires more interest payments. If the velocity of money is high enough, it can compensate and keep the game going longer, but what has it come to now, like 1.5? Plus the M1 multiplier has hit a new low, like .8 flat. And there is $52T of total US debt, enough that servicing it costs so much that it created negative growth last year, though that was 5 years ahead of schedule.

All of which, though fascinating, is largely impractical as information to trade on.

All you have to do is wait. This market will tip its hand soon. We ain't talking geologic time here. Patience.