8 replies to this topic

[rkd80]

Hey folks,

Wanted to share two charts with you. First is an unusual bottom indicator because it seems to have a good job predicting that a bottom is coming, this is one of the reasons I hung on to my shorts from last week. I was hoping to see another low and we saw it.

This is giving me confidence that we can use this new low to play the long side.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TIC...6&listNum=1


The second chart is something I have been using to get a good sense of bottoms. Context is important here and I am entirely on the fence in terms of whether the last cyclical bull is dead. Basically we are at this moment firmly in between the bear and bull, however this bull is showing signs of extreme weakeness. Contextually speaking I am willing to assume that we are probably in a bear, this is important as this chart will show you an almost exact top IF we are in a bear. For now it is showing us a bottom. Going against the signal in general is not prudent.

Usually one can take the signal as soon as it turns, but I find that waiting for it to come out of oversold inspires more confidence.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...5&listNum=1


My estimate, roughly speaking, is that we are on buy-the-dip mode for the next several weeks.

P.S. I took the opportuntiy today at EOD, to buy QQQQ @ 43.84. Stop is 43 in case signals fail.

Edited by rkd80, 09 June 2010 - 03:51 PM.

[thespookyone]

You can buy 1014 ES-I wouldn't buy this. The QQQQ will see 41.80, or worse, here.

Edited by thespookyone, 09 June 2010 - 04:05 PM.

[zoropb]

You can buy 1014 ES-I wouldn't buy this.

Got to agree with Spooky start around maybe 15% 1014 with a bit more around 45%1002 and the other 40% for 995-970. Unless something changes we likely dip under 1000. If so it will be the 4th time after a major delusional rally in 12 years free money over 1005 works. Yeah that new math will get you every time.

We should rally for 6-8 days after though and free money over 1005 will work again!

Edited by zoropb, 09 June 2010 - 04:14 PM.

[rkd80]

Hmm, I suppose the silver lining here is that if the lows break, then the signal misfired and that means the context is probably wrong - thus confirming the cyclical bear theory. This is precisely why I went long with non-leveraged instruments, while using 2x and 3x for shorts. Pissing against the trend is risky business.

[zoropb]

Hmm, I suppose the silver lining here is that if the lows break, then the signal misfired and that means the context is probably wrong - thus confirming the cyclical bear theory. This is precisely why I went long with non-leveraged instruments, while using 2x and 3x for shorts.

Pissing against the trend is risky business.

you should be ok in a little time we are likely to bounce to 1080's-1100 at least after porky makes a new low. I wonder what candy wrapped BS they got to sell it for that bounce.

[Jhoe]

Hmm, I suppose the silver lining here is that if the lows break, then the signal misfired and that means the context is probably wrong - thus confirming the cyclical bear theory. This is precisely why I went long with non-leveraged instruments, while using 2x and 3x for shorts.

Pissing against the trend is risky business.

I bought a little last week, held it but protected with tons of puts, which turned out to be pretty wise given friday-monday's action. Sold my puts Monday at the close and bought them right back above 1073 today a little cheaper.

So I'm long and actually not that nervous about it. I completely expected a weak close, if you look at any bottom on an intraday chart, you're going to always get a vicious pullback right after the first leg up. What I was watching was the close to make sure we held the key fib levels, meaning the close today could very well end up being a typical retracement. And we bounced right off of the .707 and closed almost exactly on the .618. So the open tomorrow is pretty important, needless to say. I think we open higher, and bust through that downtrend line. Even though I see institutions rolling every call option they own from June to August or later. But hey, if we were headed substantially lower, theyd wouldnt be rolling them out, theyd be liquidating them to buy puts. so I remain positive on the market. no its not easy

[porsche911sg]

Hmm, I suppose the silver lining here is that if the lows break, then the signal misfired and that means the context is probably wrong - thus confirming the cyclical bear theory. This is precisely why I went long with non-leveraged instruments, while using 2x and 3x for shorts.

Pissing against the trend is risky business.

I completely expected a weak close, if you look at any bottom on an intraday chart, you're going to always get a vicious pullback right after the first leg up. What I was watching was the close to make sure we held the key fib levels, meaning the close today could very well end up being a typical retracement. And we bounced right off of the .707 and closed almost exactly on the .618. So the open tomorrow is pretty important, needless to say. I think we open higher, and bust through that downtrend line.

As far as I rember bottoms are marked by little pull backs on second days. march 09 had 0 pull back started down on second day than up.

Usually bottom are in when the second day starts down that moves ups. after that they start oulling back.

[thespookyone]

On the bus with you on the rally back up to 1100, as well, Z. And of couse the other #'s as well. Never met a trader before I was so in sync with-glad it turned out to be a great one! Bottoming from right here won't happen, the internals are not in the proper position to support it. They supported what you got-a rally that will have no follow through. After they reset in the 1000 area though, is another story-the divergence on the NYSE MCO there should be massive.

Edited by thespookyone, 09 June 2010 - 07:11 PM.

[zoropb]

On the bus with you on the rally back up to 1100, as well, Z. And of couse the other #'s as well. Never met a trader before I was so in sync with-glad it turned out to be a great one!

Bottoming from right here won't happen, the internals are not in the proper position to support it. They supported what you got-a rally that will have no follow through. After they reset in the 1000 area though, is another story-the divergence on the NYSE MCO there should be massive.

Better to be lucky than good Spooky. Must be twins in another life.

Spooky the back scores is why I did not think we would get much past 1073 today. The back scores are just plain nasty and until they start doing what the mid scores are doing fa geta bout it for more than say a 10 day rally is wishful thinking. I wonder if we do a Monday low followed by a 2 Monday hope-a-dope then turn to reality again.

Spooky I hate to look at my real long stuff it is on mega nasty. Like I said the other day I have never seen something this nasty in all the years of looking at charts. Our fail at getting that 1129 on June 2 already has a 65% probability to see 890 SPX by probably Sept 10 or less and if we do not get to 1090 and hold it by July 6 brings it to 100% and 95% to take out March. That bites for society.