3 replies to this topic

[Dex]

Ninth Annual Niarchos Lecture
Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses:
Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Washington, DC
May 13, 2010

http://www.piie.com/...rguson-2010.pdf

[goldswinger]

Ninth Annual Niarchos Lecture
Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses:
Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments
Niall Ferguson, Harvard University
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Washington, DC
May 13, 2010

http://www.piie.com/...rguson-2010.pdf

So "Pigs are us" with a printer....

And he says the solution: Print , cut or default or a combination thereof.

But really what I got was that printing, while it appears to be an easy option, the smart and efficient bond market will not permit it as Interest rates will quickly sky rocket well ahead of the printing stopping it in its tracks....

so that leaves cut and/or default..... and that is what is probably in store, drastic budget cuts across all levels of government and selective defaults across the debt spectrum to groups of "weak" bondhlders, by weak it probably means lesser consequences......

question is who is going to be defaulted upon? ...... any answers I am curious to hear......

For those that believe depression 2 is not happenning or coming, please xplain given the cuts in store and right now government spending is what is supporting the economy.......

GS.

BTW we'll have an up day Monday and Tuesday..... as the VIX moves down...

[Islander]

Major perspective on our popular politics: it is dysfunctional in management of the public budget.

This analysis, more than anything else, seems to concurrently reinforce the 40 yr cycle that Laundry points to.

We are entering the 20 down cycle of the move knowing we are in the worst shape in history. It will be bad.

Great post, Islander

[Iblayz]

That is a 22 page PDF file and I would guess most would look at that and say "no way I'm spending that much time on a post". MISTAKE! Once I started I couldn't stop and, of course, I didn't have the time....but it was well worth the time. Thanks for posting that. Excellent stuff. What gentle Ben is doing could work and history tells him that. But history is not currently repeating itself properly....thanks to those whose self-interests are currently consuming what should be public interest. Its similar to putting food in a bird feeder so the birds can eat. That usually works when "other" factors cooperate and/or are controlled. But those pesky squirrels somehow manage to find their way onto the feeder and consume the bird food. The politicians are the squirrels.