Edited by andiron, 01 September 2010 - 09:30 PM.
ISM , market & technicals
Started by
andiron
, Sep 01 2010 09:25 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
andiron
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 09:25 PM
ISM was a definitive blow to the bear case...as of now. With hft driven market, the move was all over in 4 minutes..implying you ought to be positioned before but that is way risky/// welcome to machine trading in microseconds that is impossible to react in human realm... (this is because i had planned to buy on the break of SPY107..but before i could react it was all over..
ISM pretty much defers market sell off for a month in the least...labor situation is bleak but do not think it will have much impact on market given the global nature of major S&P cos....manufacturing seems to be robust and could be due to emerging (esp chinese) demand...(when will the monster of china crumble??)....liquidity will find way in to stocks as bonds have considerable room for a sell off...
on the technical note:
Breadth blitzkrieg: Nysi may be preparing for an upturn here...highlows are robust..NYAD may be springing off a bull flag//(TT lauundry may be wrong about nyad peak)
FTD day: most likely to happen..but many traders are likely to act after this..
50/20 sma resistance: some pullbacks are in order..But it is back to BUY THE DIP for me....do not see ES below 1050 for a while...
Impulse off the lows: Reminiscent of july lows...And a characteristic of a swing low...
Unfortunately i took most of my longs yesterday...but good thing i was flat....
#2
andiron
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 09:36 PM
On the other hand, if a robust FTD fails to materialize, then the market could be BUST
#3
arbman
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#4
NAV
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 10:05 PM
ISM was a definitive blow to the bear case...as of now. With hft driven market, the move was all over in 4 minutes..implying you ought to be positioned before but that is way risky/// welcome to machine trading in microseconds that is impossible to react in human realm... (this is because i had planned to buy on the break of SPY107..but before i could react it was all over..
ISM pretty much defers market sell off for a month in the least...labor situation is bleak but do not think it will have much impact on market given the global nature of major S&P cos....manufacturing seems to be robust and could be due to emerging (esp chinese) demand...(when will the monster of china crumble??)....liquidity will find way in to stocks as bonds have considerable room for a sell off...
on the technical note:
Breadth blitzkrieg: Nysi may be preparing for an upturn here...highlows are robust..NYAD may be springing off a bull flag//(TT lauundry may be wrong about nyad peak)
FTD day: most likely to happen..but many traders are likely to act after this..
50/20 sma resistance: some pullbacks are in order..But it is back to BUY THE DIP for me....do not see ES below 1050 for a while...
Impulse off the lows: Reminiscent of july lows...And a characteristic of a swing low...
Unfortunately i took most of my longs yesterday...but good thing i was flat....
Well, you make a pretty strong case for a bottom.
On the other hand, if a robust FTD fails to materialize, then the market could be BUST
And just 11 minutes after your "Bullish case" post, you come and throw cold water with your "OTOH" stuff
#5
thespookyone
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 10:23 PM
"ISM pretty much defers market sell off for a month in the least..."
You'll be rolling over in less than a week.
#6
NAV
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 10:26 PM
"ISM pretty much defers market sell off for a month in the least..."
You'll be rolling over in less than a week.
Or maybe the rollover has already started at ES 1078 as i type this.
#7
arbman
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Posted 01 September 2010 - 11:03 PM
I just looked into the details of the report.
First of all, the inventories are building, the orders are down, the export orders are down.
Why they are increasing their production and hiring more people is an unknown to me. It could be because GM is now coming out of the restructuring and perhaps hiring a bit more.
The major factor is probably that the prices paid have gone up, thanks to Fed. However, the buying power seems to be reduced as a result of it as the orders and exports are down. The demand curve seems elastic here and they don't need more expensive American goods if they can substitute, it seems like they are or simply there is less global demand at higher prices...
ISM is probably also bouncing after going down for sometime very sharply. The market rally has less to do with ISM, but more of an excuse for Fed to get aggressive, imho. This rally will stink all the way to the top, just because USD can go back down to low 70s. I will stick with the commodities and energy issues until the music stops.
I also stick with my call that there will be more high volatility ahead --and lower prices mostly, however for now I am on the bullish camp for a volatile trading range that will resolve higher after September.
First of all, the inventories are building, the orders are down, the export orders are down.
Why they are increasing their production and hiring more people is an unknown to me. It could be because GM is now coming out of the restructuring and perhaps hiring a bit more.
The major factor is probably that the prices paid have gone up, thanks to Fed. However, the buying power seems to be reduced as a result of it as the orders and exports are down. The demand curve seems elastic here and they don't need more expensive American goods if they can substitute, it seems like they are or simply there is less global demand at higher prices...
ISM is probably also bouncing after going down for sometime very sharply. The market rally has less to do with ISM, but more of an excuse for Fed to get aggressive, imho. This rally will stink all the way to the top, just because USD can go back down to low 70s. I will stick with the commodities and energy issues until the music stops.
I also stick with my call that there will be more high volatility ahead --and lower prices mostly, however for now I am on the bullish camp for a volatile trading range that will resolve higher after September.
Edited by arbman, 01 September 2010 - 11:05 PM.
