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In case of a switft sell off


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#1 arbman

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Posted 02 September 2010 - 12:15 PM

Notes from my blog:

Sep 2, 2010: The prices should be at a pause zone as the FLD configuration according to the dominant cycles I follow are not ideal for further advance into next week. We also see the intermediate term cycle low lining up in about 6-8 sessions. However, this period may only work out as a double bottom over the 1055 gap support or perhaps a slight dip lower. I think 1155-1165 gap support will hold for September around late next week. Breaking below that level would target low 1122-1125 or roughly a double bottom. It is possible, but less likely and in fact, it is unlikely to decline a lot lower for September anymore.

My thinking here is the pull back into next week will complete a consolidation around the gap and the market will take off. Currently there is already a price target of 1120 triggered. If the market does not break below the 1055 gap support into the cycle low due in 6-8 sessions, and rallies back up to 1085 subsequently, or current prices, the upside targets will be reconfirmed and actually become 1130 into October and it is likely that higher price targets will be triggered from there.

The highest targets possible are 1155-1185 gap zones for November. However, it will be fairly critical how the market achieves the lower 1120-1130 target into October, if it does...

Posted Image



That's it from me for now, if 1055 is not violated until late next week or early following week *major cycle low*, I will try to come back to follow up on my analysis later in September or early October once the upside targets are confirmed again (by rallying back up to 1085). If we drop lower, then we may have to wait for another low into the month end and see how the market behaves there...

Best of luck.

#2 arbman

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Posted 02 September 2010 - 12:20 PM

I posted this chart in early August ahead of breaking the 1100 support (was there ever one?), it seems like the market is following the higher projection and the cycle lows will come earlier around the middle of September rather than later...

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Edited by arbman, 02 September 2010 - 12:21 PM.


#3 Islander

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Posted 02 September 2010 - 01:31 PM

How can you set limits knowing the animal spirits such as we saw yesterday?? My technical work has been valuable to me in suggesting moves and directions, but I know the elections and the money wars - currency- are just starting for real this fall. Anything is possible, much of the rationality underlying TA can not be counted on in the future. I am taking extreme precautions, but I am unable to suggest, as you do, what might happen. We should be modest when it is dictated. Humbled, Islander.

#4 arbman

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Posted 02 September 2010 - 01:58 PM

It is just going to shake off the speculation that seems to be quickly coming back at the moment, but there seems to be more to this story... I know my boyz and they are looking for a pay day for September expirations and that's once again the 1100 level, they cannot take the index there now and hold it up there into the expirations, it would be clobbered down. My thinking here is they would want to keep the prices lower right into the expirations and then jam it higher as close as possible to 1100 as the public loads up the puts... I think the animal spirit has already gone too far, but of course you will never know... All I am doing is following a major support/resistance line that the technicals are indicating, that's the 1080-1090 level that the market is trading at the moment.

#5 arbman

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Posted 02 September 2010 - 03:56 PM

For tomorrow, it looks like any early weakness will be still bought back up, the market needs to open below today's lows to sell more than an hour. We should see some sort of a 1065 gap test next week though, the leadership does not look that strong to advance further than 1100 for now...

#6 arbman

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 07:38 AM

Stopped out at 1095... -7 or so loss...

Edited by arbman, 03 September 2010 - 07:38 AM.


#7 arbman

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 09:44 AM

I am tempted to sell again, but I think I will wait for a pull back to go long instead... The market will have a buying void that will suck the prices lower toward the gaps eventually. The cycle lows came earlier consistent with a major turn, IMHO....

#8 Echo

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 01:55 PM

YES

#9 arbman

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 02:31 PM

YES


I still think the prices will shoot further down below 1080, but perhaps not much lower and it may happen from an higher open yet. I bought 1096 and sold around 1103, +6-7 to break even for the day, I could of course short again at the highs, but I think I will take the trend rather than the counter trend twice for now... :)

I am done, I am gone. Have a great weekend.

Edited by arbman, 03 September 2010 - 02:33 PM.