7 replies to this topic

[qqqqtrdr]

Why are so many on this board jumping short early? We broke out of a daily downward trend channel to upside on volume and breadth. ST we are not overbought. The momentum will normally take you at least three days of upside... Today is day 2... Sentiment is still low 30% bulls, but not like last week of 20% bulls... Ride the wave higher, don't fight it.... Barry

[dasein]

isee equity only is pretty frothy over 200, but the index numbers are neutral to bearish. i think you might be right with another day and a move to 1097, still, it isnt bad to start scaling in shorts as NAV or arb said, it could be a fast move, and if this is a setup, it could start before the open tomorrow.

[qqqqtrdr]

The Put/Call Ratios have me Nervous also... I always look for more confirmation before pulling the plug on the rally.... Tomorrow is another day Put/Call could be bearish again. It has been 3 out of 4 last trading days. Almost 2:1 advancers on they NYSE... Haven't checked the volume, but it looks low today... Barry

[dasein]

futures vlume is relatively (past few days) low

[Architect]

Agreed. i am looking for rally all the way to Friday - an eternity for pulling a trigger. September will come after Labor Day. My current estimate is SPY 111 Needs a break of 110 to create a sense of euphoria... Then i will start firing.

[qqqqtrdr]

I'll wait for my charts tonight and plot how overbought we are.... The market momentum is up... I will follow it up... The more my charts become overbought the tighter my stops.... Currently the market is not overbought except VST ( and I trade Short Term - Medium Term trade )... It might be after today, but we shall see.. Regardless I have a minimum set at 1100 on the S&P500 using FIBONACCI , so I will likely not consider shorting until this point is reached. 1100 is assuming we are currently in a wave 3 on the 5min and 60min charts... We might be in wave 1 on the daily charts also, but it is too early to tell. I need two more up days before i can conclude this is not just a countertrend rally. Barry

[porsche911sg]

I'll wait for my charts tonight and plot how overbought we are.... The market momentum is up... I will follow it up... The more my charts become overbought the tighter my stops....

Currently the market is not overbought except VST ( and I trade Short Term - Medium Term trade )... It might be after today, but we shall see.. Regardless I have a minimum set at 1100 on the S&P500 using FIBONACCI , so I will likely not consider shorting until this point is reached. 1100 is assuming we are currently in a wave 3 on the 5min and 60min charts...

We might be in wave 1 on the daily charts also, but it is too early to tell. I need two more up days before i can conclude this is not just a countertrend rally.

Barry

I think we are in a counter trend rally. Anytime around where this is close to 1090s we top out. It's always been around approximately 1% deviation from the 50 ma on bear market after they break out of the down trend channel.

[qqqqtrdr]

Let's see what happens... We should see a rise of NASDAQ volume/NYSE volume toward the top. We are not quite overbought yet so I have not starting initiating sell signals.... Still waiting to $SPX 1100 for a possible top by my calculation, but waiting for other signals to line up at the top... I also have some bullish stats that will elude to the rally lasting longer but we need to have a good up day tomorrow. I'm looking for 3 days with VXO under it's 100-day MA as one of the signals... Barry