8 replies to this topic

[StenoDude]

I've read that the 40 year cycle (1932, 1974) is due to hit bottom 2013-2014. I've also read where people are calling the 2009 low a 4 year cycle low. If this is correct, is it then possible for the next 4 year cycle, along with the 40 year cycle, to come due in the fall of 2013? This is around when I am looking for the nominal lows in the secular bear to occur.

[vitaminm]

healthy corrections(average) or cycles low?

one may scroll the chart for cycle periods.

2002 low..........2006 low?

http://finance.yahoo...lues=0;logscale

Edited by vitaminm, 09 December 2010 - 11:43 AM.

[fib_1618]

If this is correct, is it then possible for the next 4 year cycle, along with the 40 year cycle, to come due in the fall of 2013?

Sure, why not?

Just be sure that you understand that the 4 year and 40 year cycles are economic cycles and NOT market cycles...big difference.

Fib

[StenoDude]

healthy corrections(average) or cycles low?

one may scroll the chart for cycle periods.

2002 low..........2006 low?

http://finance.yahoo...lues=0;logscale

Cycle lows. Would the July 2006 low then mark the 4 year cycle low, as well as the July 2010 low? If so, what cycle would the 2009 low belong to? I'm looking for a few good blogs on the subject.

[StenoDude]

If this is correct, is it then possible for the next 4 year cycle, along with the 40 year cycle, to come due in the fall of 2013?

Sure, why not?

Just be sure that you understand that the 4 year and 40 year cycles are economic cycles and NOT market cycles...big difference.

Fib

Point taken. Thanks Fib.

[vitaminm]

was July 2006 a low or a healthy correction?

I don't follow cycles but this chart in all time frames.

http://charts.inside...s...KIC&org=stk


"I'm looking for a few good blogs on the subject."

you may take a look at this site

http://astrocycle.ne...php?Menu=Stocks

healthy corrections(average) or cycles low?

one may scroll the chart for cycle periods.

2002 low..........2006 low?

http://finance.yahoo...lues=0;logscale

Cycle lows. Would the July 2006 low then mark the 4 year cycle low, as well as the July 2010 low? If so, what cycle would the 2009 low belong to? I'm looking for a few good blogs on the subject.

Edited by vitaminm, 09 December 2010 - 12:44 PM.

[StenoDude]

was July 2006 a low or a healthy correction?

I don't follow cycles but this chart in all time frames.

http://charts.inside...s...KIC&org=stk

you may take a look at this site

http://astrocycle.ne...php?Menu=Stocks

The July 2006 low is the midpoint between the April 2005 low (minor low) and the 2007 top (major top) so in my book it is one degree of trend less than the 2005 low or in other words, just a healthy correction.

Thanks for the links!

[vitaminm]

Here are some more links!

http://www.tradingon...rket_Cycles.htm

http://www.investope...l/04/050504.asp

http://www.decisionp...se/Cycles1.html

1st link

Conclusion

The current market entered a long term secular bear market in 2000, and as history shows us, this will last at least until 2010, probably longer. As demonstrated above, during secular bear markets, the market trades in vicious cyclical bull and bear markets. Therefore, you have to be careful in the stocks you buy and be ready to sell them quickly should the market turn against you. Pull backs or cyclical bear markets will present opportunities to take new positions once they have run their course. It is also important to find value situations and play the hot sectors. We will need to be defensive in our positions and for those who are willing to take the risk, we may want to take some short positions.

Trading and investing is much easier in secular bull markets, and much more difficult during secular bear markets. Since we are in a secular bear market for the next 5 to 10 years, it is going to be much more difficult to be successful in your trading and investing.

Currently, the cyclical bull market that begin in early 2003 is close to being over and a new cyclical bear market will begun that will last another 2 to 3 years. This means that the best plays will be on the bearish side for the next couple years, that is, until the next cyclical bull begins.


Does one make easy money in bull market without watching it carefully?

Edited by vitaminm, 09 December 2010 - 01:04 PM.

[voltaire]

I've read that the 40 year cycle (1932, 1974) is due to hit bottom 2013-2014. I've also read where people are calling the 2009 low a 4 year cycle low. If this is correct, is it then possible for the next 4 year cycle, along with the 40 year cycle, to come due in the fall of 2013? This is around when I am looking for the nominal lows in the secular bear to occur.

Steno

The market low will be July 5th or 8th 2013. That is the Friday or the following Monday.