8 replies to this topic

[IYB]

We are on track for a confirming HO today, unless internals suddenly and dramatically reverse which is of course not gonna happen. For those who believe HO to be hocus pocus, kindly disregard this message. Good trading, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p16783854096&a=203924744&r=870.png

[arbman]

A sharp pull back is in the making, no doubt. However, when I compare the current configuration to many historical instances (rising new lows, yet RUT leadership), this looks like early June 2007 to me. I think there will be one more high in January, we should be in a month long topping period. The HOs will probably multiply from here and several of them will confirm ahead of a big slide in February into perhaps until late April...

There is a 64-66 wk cycle low coming up, the sequence has been as June 2006, Aug 2007, Nov 2008, Feb 2010 and hence late April-early May 2011...

[vitaminm]

in past,was it a 64-66 wk cycle law or a healthy correction?

[tozwp]

We are on track for a confirming HO today, unless internals suddenly and dramatically reverse which is of course not gonna happen. For those who believe HO to be hocus pocus, kindly disregard this message. Good trading, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p16783854096&a=203924744&r=870.png

Your SS sell should trigger tonight if breadth stays like it is? Last night it looked like only the BP's needed to trigger.

[IYB]

Your SS sell should trigger tonight if breadth stays like it is? Last night it looked like only the BP's needed to trigger.

They are actually still on sell mode from November 12, having never gone to buy. But we covered two weeks ago and have been mostly just waiting....till NOW.

[tozwp]

Your SS sell should trigger tonight if breadth stays like it is? Last night it looked like only the BP's needed to trigger.

They are actually still on sell mode from November 12, having never gone to buy. But we covered two weeks ago and have been mostly just waiting....till NOW.

Have fun sledding down the hill! You certainly nailed the move up.

Thought I saw all 7 go to a buy a week or two ago but just barely. Been waiting for the next sell and I think it should be tonight. Do you have any way of seeing the BP's in real time during the day? Stockcharts doesn't show them until late afternoon.

[IYB]

Your SS sell should trigger tonight if breadth stays like it is? Last night it looked like only the BP's needed to trigger.

They are actually still on sell mode from November 12, having never gone to buy. But we covered two weeks ago and have been mostly just waiting....till NOW.

Have fun sledding down the hill! You certainly nailed the move up.

Thought I saw all 7 go to a buy a week or two ago but just barely. Been waiting for the next sell and I think it should be tonight. Do you have any way of seeing the BP's in real time during the day? Stockcharts doesn't show them until late afternoon.

No - just have to extrapolate the BP's. Looks good for today tho. I use a 28-day confirming rule which never triggered on this rally. Best, D

[arbman]

in past,was it a 64-66 wk cycle law or a healthy correction?

If I understand your question correctly, it really depends on the slope of the 64-66 week and longer term baselines (say the moving averages for example). Currently, these moving averages are up, but we are in a topping phase and they may mostly turn back down by the time we see the top into early January or even late January. I think any rally attempts will be mostly over by early February as I just posted the odds. There is a chance that this will be a major top given how long the market spent around 1200 zone in 2010, any sharp down turn from here would actually make these averages turn in a way that will be much harder to "reset" for some time and this will not happen with higher highs, it will happen with gradual lower lows...

Edited by arbman, 15 December 2010 - 03:24 PM.

[vitaminm]

June 2006, Aug 2007,(heathy correction)
Nov 2008,(down trend)
Feb 2010(healthy correction)


http://charts.inside...s...KIC&org=stk

Thanks.

in past,was it a 64-66 wk cycle low or a healthy correction?

If I understand your question correctly, it really depends on the slope of the 64-66 week and longer term baselines (say the moving averages for example). Currently, these moving averages are up, but we are in a topping phase and they may mostly turn back down by the time we see the top into early January or even late January. I think any rally attempts will be mostly over by early February as I just posted the odds. There is a chance that this will be a major top given how long the market spent around 1200 zone in 2010, any sharp down turn from here would actually make these averages turn in a way that will be much harder to "reset" for some time and this will not happen with higher highs, it will happen with gradual lower lows...