14 replies to this topic

[xtrader]

S&P down, dollar down also? Is that the new trend? Anybody experts in the dollar? No fundamentals here please.. I don't want to hear those doom and glooom posts hahaha...

[fluid]

S&P down, dollar down also?

Is that the new trend?

Anybody experts in the dollar?

No fundamentals here please.. I don't want to hear those doom and glooom posts hahaha...

Everything is fine

You did say no doom and gloom!!!

[Bangtime]

S&P down, dollar down also?

Is that the new trend?

Anybody experts in the dollar?

No fundamentals here please.. I don't want to hear those doom and glooom posts hahaha...

To me, basic T/A shows an inverted cup and handle since November with a potential target of 70-71 and the larger one from 2008 gives ~ a 60 target. Wouldn't that be something. Sorry for no bells and whistles, but I'm from the era and a fan of Vince Lombardi.

B

[totterdell91]

This is how I would analyze the USD index

Longer term


Intermediate term


Shorter Term. basically you watch the ST pink upper line. Until it is breached, the trend id down. Really that s all you need to know if you are trend following

[MikeyG]

If you are looking for a swing trade, dollar is going to bottom soon, within the next few days... LT I think it's going up as well as we have wave down in spx and the dollar will become the safe haven once again...

[BANDSTAND]

USD/CAD is also a useful barometer. Now at support.

[MikeyG]

USD/CAD is also a useful barometer. Now at support.

USD/CAD is funny pair, it usually trades with the stock market bc Canada exports a bunch of oil to the US and if health the US economy is good then they get to export more oil and the CAD does well...

On the other hand it diverged the last few days bc of the oil situation in Africa, so some hot money went to the CAD thinking they will export more oil...

The econ data has been real weak in Canada as of late, but the market has not cared and pushed it new highs vs the greenback...

As far as the support goes, lets see if it holds...

Edited by MikeyG, 25 February 2011 - 06:16 AM.

[zoropb]

DOWN... counter trend rallies aside we are headed to first 68.75+-1 then 61+-2. Even a shot at 48 within 3 years. I have nothing that says we bottomed yet. In fact last time I saw this technical read we still dropped about 4-5 points before a counter trend rally popped up. This one could be bigger. I wanted to add but we could get a little rally here to 77.50's If we take out 79 then I got to re-think the entire view.

Edited by zoropb, 25 February 2011 - 06:25 AM.

[zoropb]

could go 78.

[totterdell91]

Whatever might drive it, the pattern of what the USDCAD is doing is pretty obvious.

and when it breaks the current down trend, it should be pretty easy to pick, and will be more than likely accompanied by a back test of that upper parallel. For the moment, the highest probability will be for the USD to test for support along the declining median line while it gathers strength relative to the loonies strength. If support breaks, the USD will back test for resistance, if that holds, it will test support. On the other hand, if the median line holds, there is only one other direction for the USD to travel. It will have to test overhead resistance (again).