4 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Before futures trading begins, here's my take of the short-term (2-3 days) directions of the followings.

UP
Dollar
Oil

DOWN
Gold
Silver
Copper
Equities

It seems that the market looked at the initial devastation in Japan and the "business as usual" in the middle east as positive on Friday. The VIX options couldn't have been more bullish and so was my Options Analyzer. But, I've never thought options are where the smart money is. OTOH, my ETF Analyzer continues to stay bearish.

My view is that while the middle east scenario (as I had outlined in my "Day of Rage" thread) had already been priced in, the market might've under estimated the "Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions" in Japan.

Speaking of what's happening now in Japan…. As I'm watching the tsunami aftermath video footage of Japanese people waiting in orderly fashion for food and water, one of the first thoughts came to mind was that there's no looting. None. And, that's unimaginable here in the U.S. of A.

Edited by TechMan, 13 March 2011 - 04:06 PM.

[selecto]

Japan will be generating a lot of electricity with oil near term, if only with cobbled ad hoc equipment. Maybe much, much longer. Wonder what that does to oil demand/price? (Down in the Grenadines, there is a lovely private island with all the fixins. The owner sails up in his yacht and plugs the island in when he is there. Much like the Enron generating barges elsewhere, which could be sailed away flying the US flag, should the locals get nasty.)

Edited by selecto, 13 March 2011 - 05:10 PM.

[TechMan]

Wow! JPY (Japanese Yen) is skyrocketing against all major currencies... Looks like risk aversion is back on.

[pdx5]

Wow! JPY (Japanese Yen) is skyrocketing against all major currencies... Looks like risk aversion is back on.

Makes sense since Japan will need lots of Yen for reconstruction.
So they will be selling foreign reserves and buying Yen.

[TechMan]

Wow! JPY (Japanese Yen) is skyrocketing against all major currencies... Looks like risk aversion is back on.

Makes sense since Japan will need lots of Yen for reconstruction.
So they will be selling foreign reserves and buying Yen.

Right under the nose of the BOJ's planned injection of several trillions of yen on the "same-day" operation???

At any rate, this will be one fun night to stay up and watch the firework. It's guaranteed to be very volatile. Before the open, one analyst/trader on dailyfx called the yen direction at trading open "unclear", and the reaction might be "violent".