3 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

I had posted this chart last night after seeing that plunge in the euro after midnight, at around 00:40. It went straight through the 38.2% (1.4149) support. And, it sure seemed as though it could take out 1.400 with ease.



But, it didn't. Instead, it had reverted back above 1.4149. And, during the final 30 minutes of our regular session, it had managed to rise above the 1.4200 critical resistance of a potential hourly Cup & Handle bottom reversal formation.



All this is telling me that the risk is back on for now. After all, the selling of the past few days is about the Euro.

As I had anticipated, yesterday's low did get tested today. And, today's low appears to be a VST low. Barring any contradicting evidence in my closing report, I would not hesitate to call this a VST bottom.

Now that few are expecting it, there's potential for this bounce to turn into a rally beyond expectations. We'll see.

Again, just want to put this out before Asia opens. I'll update after reviewing my closing data.

Edited by TechMan, 16 June 2011 - 07:00 PM.

[andiron]

my diagnosis is about same....i expected a nice sell off today ..but the market giving some signs of at least ST bottom (could be minor wave up for ex) NYMO sports some kinda divergence as well... So mua covered his short...and now flat.. my guess is sideways to little up for a wk or twos before another sell off ensues///

[TechMan]

Things looked so bad that they've actually become quite appealing to me. There are so many extreme readings in today's closing data that's just insane. This is really corny, but that's exactly what everyone is saying - it's either on the verge of a big rally or a crash. Forget about the contrarian view of what "everyone" is saying, it's not easy to have a crash with just 11 of the Nasdaq 100 above 50 DMA. I guess it could happen like 2008 or May of last year, but a more likely scenario is to have a re-set first. Rally time.

[TechMan]

Oops, too late to edit. Anway... The VIX options are so bearish that's almost unreal with nearly 180,000 contracts for July 30 call traded. That's the largest volume I've seen in a long while. The PCR, however, is a different story.

Edited by TechMan, 16 June 2011 - 10:00 PM.