3 replies to this topic

[Islander]

When the "0" new jobs data came in this AM, it was adjusted with a fictious number called the "birth/death" model that purports to show the net creation of new businesses that were not surveyed in the BLS sweep.

The BLS added 84,000 hypothetical jobs to get to zero new jobs. Based on the data actually surveyed the report should have been -84000 jobs. Similar adjustments have been used in the past, but today it is a real distortion.

The birth/death model has been the subject of much suspicion by statisticians since the BLS can not show it has any historical validity. It is used to dress the numbers for political reasons.



This jewel is wrong too, but Mr. Short drinks the BLS cool aid, so not surprised at his graph.

The point is we are not where they are reporting employment to be.

Best, Islander.

Edited by Islander, 02 September 2011 - 01:31 PM.

[arbman]

The US jobs numbers have been fudged up some 500k since the beginning of the year with the birth/death model (bdm). The economy has been loosing jobs for sometime actually... In fact, this morning's report would not have been the first negative report, had bdm adjustments been removed... Very Best...

http://www.bls.gov/w...mpsit/cesbd.htm

Edited by arbman, 02 September 2011 - 01:36 PM.

[Islander]

Will they will adjust the reports in Oct and this time the prior year data will all be down. The net effect will be to show te B/D model and sampling errors have mislead the public and investors seriously the prior 6 months. Not the first sin, but the most recent. Islander

Edited by Islander, 02 September 2011 - 01:41 PM.

[thespookyone]

"Probably"? Is the pope a catholic?