Looking at market action, this is a likely a bear trap before heading higher. Looking to add back leverage position I closed last week as early as tomorrow.
Market still have upside.
Good Luck. cheers.
Likely to be a bear trap
Started by
punter
, Oct 31 2011 07:12 PM
10 replies to this topic
#1
punter
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 07:12 PM
Keep Calm and be Long
My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!
#2
DrSP
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 07:40 PM
Looking at market action, this is a likely a bear trap before heading higher. Looking to add back leverage position I closed last week as early as tomorrow.
Add it, this time we will see.
Market still have upside.
Likely, but not at the rate that we have seen in the last 4 weeks. Even Fed had only limited capability to print Trillions. Market cannot go from 1075 to 1450 in 5 weeks.
Have some perspective. Bullish case: We will be in the range between 1200 - 1300 for most part of November. I am quoting a wide range but you get the idea. May be go up after that.
Bearish case: We melt down below 1150 in 2 weeks.
No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
You could be a billionaire or an industrial worker or a teacher or a moderator of a forum - Hold a good conscience because that is what matters.
#3
andiron
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 07:50 PM
it is already a bull trapLooking at market action, this is a likely a bear trap before heading higher. Looking to add back leverage position I closed last week as early as tomorrow.
Add it, this time we will see.
Market still have upside.
Likely, but not at the rate that we have seen in the last 4 weeks. Even Fed had only limited capability to print Trillions. Market cannot go from 1075 to 1450 in 5 weeks.
Bullish case: We will be in the range between 1200 - 1300 for most part of November. I am quoting a wide range but you get the idea. May be go up after that.
Bearish case: We melt down below 1150 in 2 weeks.
No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
#4
Macro Speculator
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 09:33 PM
Looking at market action, this is a likely a bear trap before heading higher. Looking to add back leverage position I closed last week as early as tomorrow.
Add it, this time we will see.
Market still have upside.
Likely, but not at the rate that we have seen in the last 4 weeks. Even Fed had only limited capability to print Trillions. Market cannot go from 1075 to 1450 in 5 weeks.
Bullish case: We will be in the range between 1200 - 1300 for most part of November. I am quoting a wide range but you get the idea. May be go up after that.
Bearish case: We melt down below 1150 in 2 weeks.
No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
Agree with these ranges...think the bearish case is more likely...looking to close my puts in the 1180s and see what happens if we do go the the 1150 area. I will probably play the 1150-1170 area for a brief long if we get there (maybe back to 1210 or so), but only brief, because if we penetrate all the way down to the 1150-1170 levels again, my view will be strengthened that we're on a trip below 1000. I know if that happens bulls will be saying that it's a 50% retrace of the 1074-1292 move and so on, but to me it will be more evidence that this was just a sharp bear rally and that we're heading back to lower lows.
#5
fib_1618
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 10:59 PM
Just a simple snapback today...1300 is doable by Friday.No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#6
claire
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 11:17 PM
Just a simple snapback today...1300 is doable by Friday.No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
Fib
Fib, do you think that's likely? Are you ST bullish at this point? Thanks.
#7
CallMeIshmael
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 11:27 PM
Sure looks like it. This is not a guy to fade IMHO.Just a simple snapback today...1300 is doable by Friday.No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
Fib
Fib, do you think that's likely? Are you ST bullish at this point? Thanks.
#8
DrSP
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Posted 31 October 2011 - 11:54 PM
Just a simple snapback today...1300 is doable by Friday.No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
Fib
You are THE man, machine and THE chartist, Fib. But, even if it is by fluke that we don't go to 1300 in 4 days, I can add a star to my signature.
I am up for it. So, 1300 it is by friday. The odds are 50/50. Tick tock tick tock.....
You could be a billionaire or an industrial worker or a teacher or a moderator of a forum - Hold a good conscience because that is what matters.
#9
viccarter
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TRIN_Rida
Posted 01 November 2011 - 12:35 AM
Just a simple snapback today...1300 is doable by Friday.No chance: Above 1300 before Nov. 12th.
Fib
I am flat now, but stalking longs. I do not have conviction with my read on the market right now, but certainly leaning long with what I'm seeing.
#10
fib_1618
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Posted 01 November 2011 - 08:12 AM
After the one-two punch overnight of both the Greek Referendum (silly move) and then the MF Global news after midnight (which continues to snowball as of this writing), no, 1300 no longer looks doable now by the end of this week as we're likely to break some near term technical levels that support such a move during the day.Fib, do you think that's likely?
With that said, however, we do remain within the target window of which the NYSE breadth McClellan Summation Index suggested back in July of an important price bottom between the 3rd week of September and the 1st week of November...with the ideal date the second week of October. This, therefore, might be the final swipe (shakeout) for the bears before they go into winter hibernation.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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