3 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

Something that is a LOT different this time, than back in 2008 is the price of natural gas. Having worked in the gas industry for a local gas distribution company (fifth largest in the nation at the time in the 90's) and then for another 5 years with the gas industry's premier natural gas technology R&D firm, I do know a thing or two about the impact of gas on the economy, and as well the massive plethora of gas that surrounds this nation on the intercontinental shelf, as well as the massive amounts of it, below its fertile green pastures nation wide. Technology for obtaining gas has improved exponentially over the past 2 decades, and will likely continue to improve for the next 20 years even more. Back in 2008, natural gas reached epic costs here in the US of $14 per mmbtu. Currently its around $2 mmbtu. That folks is about 20 cents per therm, which is what you might see on your gas utility bill. Last time it was around these prices was way back in the 1990's. Natural gas is not only used for electric power generation, but its function in electric power generation has become more and more increasingly critical as natural gas fired turbines combined with steam power re-heat in a combined cycle configuration make electric power for handling the peak days extremely inexpensive and flexible for power generators. The most recent vintage of gas turbines from GE are reaching 60% efficiency. Natural gas is also far cleaner burning than coal, so as these large combined cycle plants become more widely adopted, our air will become much much cleaner, and have far less dirty particulate, as coal plants are phased out. Most coal plants by the way, are lucky to have 30% efficiency. Natural gas is also used in the production of plastics, fertilizers, and even fabrics. Its used by chemical firms, the pulp and paper industry, stone, glass, and food processing industries. So with gas this cheap right now, many companies bottom lines here in the US, are having some distinct competitive advantages worldwide. Additionally, the US BY FAR has the world's most advanced, and most widely dispersed natural gas compression and distribution infrastructure. It can also be stored in massive quantities and is for winter use in many underground caverns, and so on. So its easy to hedge with this fuel for months at a time. Of course its also easily used for heating, gas dryers, water heaters, etc. So back in 2008, while our economy was no doubt having many problems on a number of fronts (foreclosures, liquidity and subprime crisis, high oil prices, high gasoline prices) it also went unnoticed by many that super high natural gas costs were a major contributing factor to adverse affects throughout many industries. Of course they were getting hit hard on so many fronts, it wasn't easy or readily identifiable that natural gas alone would be a culprit, but at those prices, it hurt badly. Now at $2/mmbtu, its becoming a major support for our entire economy, and helping many people who heat their homes or use it for hot water, gas dryers, etc. save some nice bucks. Additionally, a super mild winter also conspired to lower overall usage of it for heating, so low prices coupled with low usage really added some decent bucks to industry, commercial businesses, hospitals, and residentials who use NG. Not that this will help our economy all by itself, but I think our economy will have a hard time simply cratering like the last go around in 2008. Companies who were lean then, got even leaner, and more competitive. So that will no doubt help. They found many ways to do things even more cheaply, not just on savings on the energy front. For raw product producers who may have been hurt in '08, they are now having a huge lift from $2 gas. There are still many headwinds we are facing, but this is one MAJOR TAILWIND we have right now, literally helping every single citizen whether they realize it or not. Another really nice business for the US, is that of LNG, producing liquified NG which we can export to MANY other nations. I don't know if we are at the dawn of a new energy renaissance here, and I doubt Obama is smart enough to even look into it with all his aids, but he could certainly use it to help him win re-election, which is ironic, because this industry is usually associated with the republican party. I'm frankly stupified, by how few candidates have talked this up, for new jobs, more job industries, and the massive amount of industry depending upon gas. And at a time when nuclear industry has had its butt kicked, you'd think that we'd again be going nuts and building NG fired power plants out the ying yang, and just [bleeeep] canning as many of the darn coal plants as we can. Not all of them, mind you, but enough to create some interesting diversity, and keep our electric costs down. I think we have a hidden gem in NG. One that can help us for decades. One that might even help dig us out of an economic hole thats quite deep.

[OEXCHAOS]

You feelin' OK nimblebear? lol!

[darnelds]

US regulators vote on LNG export project.
http://www.reuters.c...E8FD5T720120413

[nimblebear]

You feelin' OK nimblebear? lol!

Well seeing as the market is rigged up and through the time Obama gets re-elected, I figured it wouldn't hurt to be at least a little optimistic and share some slightly positive rays of light that could maybe off-set the gloom and depression of yet another 4 more years of thuggery and corruption we all face with the empty suit that is B.O. who'll remain in office - much to my chagrin. either that, or the margaritas i was brewing had a wee bit too high of ratio of tequila to limeaid.