11 replies to this topic

[Harapa]

May be someone here can tell me what may be wrong with this analysis?

This setup is an an effort to identify good entry/exit points using cycles. Here I show its signals using 8-144 period (Fibonacci series). Notice it has generated a sell in all variations shown here. This is a rare occurrence since last time it generated such a signal was on October 10, 2007, at the exact market top and an opposite signal (to go Long ) on March 06, 2009. This indicator is supposed to give some advance warning. In addition it requires some additional input to declare a buy/sell.

For the hourly chart I have data series going back to March 2007. However, I can check this setup using daily or weekly data going back to 1970 or earlier. It's daily rendition was correct in calling an exit before '87 crash, 1990/1998/2000/2003/2011 corrections/bear markets or re-entries after the down drafts. This setup also issued "exit market signal" in daily and weekly time frame last week.

This setup is also indicating "exit market" in conjunction with VIX or XIV, and go Long for VXX. Previous VIX signals also matched with SP500 signals (wherever data was available). In addition, this setup is generating sell signals for many individual shares of interest (Apple, Facebook, Google, Merck, IBM, etc.).

All of the above doesn't bode well with a roaring bull market scenario. Another scary thing is about the nature of reversal signal;true reversal signal needs to be of same magnitude as the previous signal-that is the next reversal signal will require reversal of all elements. Such an occurrence is unlikely without a significant correction in the price.

Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be regarded as an investment advice. Also above comments are based on back testing going back 1970 (weekly and daily data) or 2007 (using hourly data). Performance of this setup in real time hasn't been examined.

[pisces]

May be someone here can tell me what may be wrong with this analysis?

This setup is an an effort to identify good entry/exit points using cycles. Here I show its signals using 8-144 period (Fibonacci series). Notice it has generated a sell in all variations shown here. This is a rare occurrence since last time it generated such a signal was on October 10, 2007, at the exact market top and an opposite signal (to go Long ) on March 06, 2009. This indicator is supposed to give some advance warning. In addition it requires some additional input to declare a buy/sell.

For the hourly chart I have data series going back to March 2007. However, I can check this setup using daily or weekly data going back to 1970 or earlier. It's daily rendition was correct in calling an exit before '87 crash, 1990/1998/2000/2003/2011 corrections/bear markets or re-entries after the down drafts. This setup also issued "exit market signal" in daily and weekly time frame last week.

This setup is also indicating "exit market" in conjunction with VIX or XIV, and go Long for VXX. Previous VIX signals also matched with SP500 signals (wherever data was available). In addition, this setup is generating sell signals for many individual shares of interest (Apple, Facebook, Google, Merck, IBM, etc.).

All of the above doesn't bode well with a roaring bull market scenario. Another scary thing is about the nature of reversal signal;true reversal signal needs to be of same magnitude as the previous signal-that is the next reversal signal will require reversal of all elements. Such an occurrence is unlikely without a significant correction in the price.

Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purposes only and should not be regarded as an investment advice. Also above comments are based on back testing going back 1970 (weekly and daily data) or 2007 (using hourly data). Performance of this setup in real time hasn't been examined.

There may not be anything wrong with your analysis. i am neither bull nor bear,i am waiting for the market to point the way.two items stick out in your post:

1,"this indicator is supposed to give some advanced warning",,,IMO we could make a double top or nominal new high this week especially with the events coming up.

2,"all of the above doesnt bode well with a roaring bull market scenario",,,IMO all major downturns or bearmarkets started under the cover of a roaring bullmarket scenario.

Thanks for posting all your analysis

[nimblebear]

Yep. Pretty much the same to what I alluded to in my prior post about what has 'already started.' but I was blown apart by another poster, who frequently does those things. Thanks for the TA though to support the prior observation I made.

[nimblebear]

And what we've just witnessed is most likely going to turn out to be history's largest sucker rally (mostly parabolic) before the largest you know what since 1929. I say largest to the extent that it's been sucking people in since 2009, not this recent little spike since the tiny little dip we had in the past 60 days or so. It's been of course fostered by HFT, heavy doses of profoundly warped and misguided monetary policy, and professional traders on WS (5 biggest banks) having access to unlimited amounts of interest free money, along with access to unbounded amounts of what in any other era be considered fraudulent insider trading, that would have been prosecuted in a heartbeat. (making Michael Milken look like a dime store thief) But sadly that's what we get in this current era of complete lawlessness, including most egregiously by our POTUS. Elimination of Glass steagel was tantamount to handing the keys to the criminals before they became criminals and letting them throw the keys in the ocean while the jail cell doors remained laughably opened and the guards simply played cards and looked away. Another analogy and example of this is happening is to the south with our borders as the gangs are waltzing in and given free food and medical care by what used to be the border patrol now turned baby sitter for them and all the children crossing into the land of entitlements out the ying yang with no one caring about the consequences or who will actually pay for it all. So at least it's all consistent with what is happening now on so many levels in this country.

[options4one]

Good Work!!!

[punter]

Your analysis has been eerily accurate. Notwithstanding I have a sell for hang seng. Let's see what brings tomorrow.

[Harapa]

Thank you folks. Let's see how this goes.

[nimblebear]

And what we've just witnessed is most likely going to turn out to be history's largest sucker rally (mostly parabolic) before the largest you know what since 1929. I say largest to the extent that it's been sucking people in since 2009, not this recent little spike since the tiny little dip we had in the past 60 days or so. It's been of course fostered by HFT, heavy doses of profoundly warped and misguided monetary policy, and professional traders on WS (5 biggest banks) having access to unlimited amounts of interest free money, along with access to unbounded amounts of what in any other era be considered fraudulent insider trading, that would have been prosecuted in a heartbeat. (making Michael Milken look like a dime store thief) But sadly that's what we get in this current era of complete lawlessness, including most egregiously by our POTUS. Elimination of Glass steagel was tantamount to handing the keys to the criminals before they became criminals and letting them throw the keys in the ocean while the jail cell doors remained laughably opened and the guards simply played cards and looked away. Another analogy and example of this is happening is to the south with our borders as the gangs are waltzing in and given free food and medical care by what used to be the border patrol now turned baby sitter for them and all the children crossing into the land of entitlements out the ying yang with no one caring about the consequences or who will actually pay for it all. So at least it's all consistent with what is happening now on so many levels in this country.

Informative piece on the $29 trillion central banks (meaning done through the likes of the big 5) as I just mentioned above in terms of misguided monetary policy and the 'free money' to those banks to inject into stocks.

This came out after I posted the above, so quite timely, and proof I'm not just making this stuff up. the market is so falsely and fraudulently propped up, it's a joke to think this will last. People didn't believe when it was stated the US Fed printed up and sent around the plant about $29 trillion back post 2008 systemic collapse. Well this coming out now, finally, is essentially proof of that. The Fed knew the jig was up and the dollar was toast, so they made the conscious decision to do this, irrespective of any longer term consequences.

http://www.zerohedge...trillion-market

[punter]

Thank you folks. Let's see how this goes.

What does your data say? Or are you still waiting for some more data points?

[dugan]

This is very interesting ? I have been following you for some time Harapa, you do excellent work. Is there a corresponding chart or analyiss anywhere ? I couldnt find on website, or is this something rather not share ? I am just trying to understand the context of this indicator....