6 replies to this topic

[Kimston]

My analysis is pointing to important timing in the crude oil on 6/18/07 + or - a couple trading days. I'm leaning towards it being a top for a shorting op, but if trending down into that time zone I may look for long setup in technicals.

The first chart includes a stab at identifying a fractal ala Hank the Frac Man's work. It looks nearly complete as I have labeled it.




The second chart is a weekly of crude nearby continuous futures contract with ewave count and some cycle work. I see Tea Party posted an Ewave count on crude late last week. Though somewhat differnt than my count, we are both looking for substantially lower prices after rally is complete (I prefer when everyone else has a different interpretation than mine).



The last chart is a zoom in on the Ewaves and shorter term cycles with a daily chart.




I'm just pointing out a time zone to watch. Sentiment indexes are currently in the 60 to 65 range and would need to get higher over the next few weeks to add confidence to entering a trade around 6/18 if one appears to present itself. The clues something might be wrong with this count is either a break below 62 or a rally above 71.

6/18/07 area should be watched for potential reversal regardless of which way the market is heading at that time.

Kimston

[Mr Dev]

Does that qualify to work ? On your oil chart taking a fractal off a pivot down trend,.. and then imposing it onto a pivot Up trend? Don't bet the farm.

Edited by Mr Dev, 28 May 2007 - 08:13 PM.

[Kimston]

The fractal was more for amusement, but I think it follows the basic method Hank was using - just looking for pattern similarities regardless of size or position. The more serious analysis, for me, is the Ewave and cycle work which I think is rather compelling. No need to be the farm. IF the trade happens to line up as pointed out on the third chart, one should be able to enter a trade with narrowly defined risk parameters; i.e., tight stops. Kimston

[phloat]

looks like a big H&S structure since mid 2005 with the right shoulder looking like as inverse H&S by itself. its a gamble. Two months to hurricane season.

[Frac_Man]

Yes it is a fractal. Is there a way you can post a line chart ?

One needs the roughness to qualify the form as a fractal

But so far it looks good !


Hank

My analysis is pointing to important timing in the crude oil on 6/18/07 + or - a couple trading days. I'm leaning towards it being a top for a shorting op, but if trending down into that time zone I may look for long setup in technicals.

The first chart includes a stab at identifying a fractal ala Hank the Frac Man's work. It looks nearly complete as I have labeled it.




The second chart is a weekly of crude nearby continuous futures contract with ewave count and some cycle work. I see Tea Party posted an Ewave count on crude late last week. Though somewhat differnt than my count, we are both looking for substantially lower prices after rally is complete (I prefer when everyone else has a different interpretation than mine).



The last chart is a zoom in on the Ewaves and shorter term cycles with a daily chart.




I'm just pointing out a time zone to watch. Sentiment indexes are currently in the 60 to 65 range and would need to get higher over the next few weeks to add confidence to entering a trade around 6/18 if one appears to present itself. The clues something might be wrong with this count is either a break below 62 or a rally above 71.

6/18/07 area should be watched for potential reversal regardless of which way the market is heading at that time.

Kimston

[Kimston]

Yes it is a fractal. Is there a way you can post a line chart ?

One needs the roughness to qualify the form as a fractal

But so far it looks good !


Hank


Hank,
Here's the line chart version. I am hoping for one more high around 69 area based on my Ewave count, but this fractal looks like it may be done.

Kimston

My analysis is pointing to important timing in the crude oil on 6/18/07 + or - a couple trading days. I'm leaning towards it being a top for a shorting op, but if trending down into that time zone I may look for long setup in technicals.

The first chart includes a stab at identifying a fractal ala Hank the Frac Man's work. It looks nearly complete as I have labeled it.




The second chart is a weekly of crude nearby continuous futures contract with ewave count and some cycle work. I see Tea Party posted an Ewave count on crude late last week. Though somewhat differnt than my count, we are both looking for substantially lower prices after rally is complete (I prefer when everyone else has a different interpretation than mine).



The last chart is a zoom in on the Ewaves and shorter term cycles with a daily chart.




I'm just pointing out a time zone to watch. Sentiment indexes are currently in the 60 to 65 range and would need to get higher over the next few weeks to add confidence to entering a trade around 6/18 if one appears to present itself. The clues something might be wrong with this count is either a break below 62 or a rally above 71.

6/18/07 area should be watched for potential reversal regardless of which way the market is heading at that time.

Kimston

[Frac_Man]

The Line chart looks good to me for the coming top


Hank

Yes it is a fractal. Is there a way you can post a line chart ?

One needs the roughness to qualify the form as a fractal

But so far it looks good !


Hank


Hank,
Here's the line chart version. I am hoping for one more high around 69 area based on my Ewave count, but this fractal looks like it may be done.

Kimston

My analysis is pointing to important timing in the crude oil on 6/18/07 + or - a couple trading days. I'm leaning towards it being a top for a shorting op, but if trending down into that time zone I may look for long setup in technicals.

The first chart includes a stab at identifying a fractal ala Hank the Frac Man's work. It looks nearly complete as I have labeled it.




The second chart is a weekly of crude nearby continuous futures contract with ewave count and some cycle work. I see Tea Party posted an Ewave count on crude late last week. Though somewhat differnt than my count, we are both looking for substantially lower prices after rally is complete (I prefer when everyone else has a different interpretation than mine).



The last chart is a zoom in on the Ewaves and shorter term cycles with a daily chart.




I'm just pointing out a time zone to watch. Sentiment indexes are currently in the 60 to 65 range and would need to get higher over the next few weeks to add confidence to entering a trade around 6/18 if one appears to present itself. The clues something might be wrong with this count is either a break below 62 or a rally above 71.

6/18/07 area should be watched for potential reversal regardless of which way the market is heading at that time.

Kimston