5 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm not sure what is up, but I'll tell you this, if this ratio keeps falling, we'd better be paying attention.

http://www.traders-t...ost&id=5745.png

[hiker]

I know almost nothing about sentiment except can intuit the lack of buyers or lack of sellers.

my sentiment trade today..this trade can get me in trouble if not very careful..can also be profitable beyond expectation if stay with it while the charts say to do so -

http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry299821

note 1 min NVLS shows first real sign it MAY rollover...shorts have nothing for horizontals between 33.03 and 33.94...long was the place to be today..now what?

Edited by hiker, 17 July 2007 - 09:10 AM.

[relax]

why are you unsure about the development or are you indicating that this is indicating a big buy as we are getting close to the 60 per cent level thanks for the chart!

[OEXCHAOS]

why are you unsure about the development

or are you indicating that this is indicating a big buy as we are getting close to the 60 per cent level

thanks for the chart!

I'm seeing many signs of some sort of a top, but this chart is saying, "Not so fast there, Buster!"

Maybe we do top shortly but quickly set up another run higher. This has a similar feel right now to a certain market 20 years ago. Anybody else feel that way?

If the analog holds, we have generally higher prices coming for a while.

Mark

[rkd80]

Yeah Mark, I know what you are feeling. I been looking at those named charts from 20 years ago for a long time. The only difference, they did have a small 10% 'correction' before everything went nuts.

[Pabst]

why are you unsure about the development

or are you indicating that this is indicating a big buy as we are getting close to the 60 per cent level

thanks for the chart!

I'm seeing many signs of some sort of a top, but this chart is saying, "Not so fast there, Buster!"

Maybe we do top shortly but quickly set up another run higher. This has a similar feel right now to a certain market 20 years ago. Anybody else feel that way?

If the analog holds, we have generally higher prices coming for a while.

Mark

Very similar Mark. Rising rates, a weak dollar and a rally that kicked into high acceleration for a full year before the top. Of course those '87 p/e's were more like 2000 than today. I guess that's why we're rallying. This stuff isn't ultra expensive.

An interesting aside. I can't "save" and post esignal but you'll notice a two pronged year long rally in SPX commencing at 228 in 10/86 and reaching a temporary climax in April 87 at 303. Sort of like our July through Feb 27. Round 2 of up starts in May at 277 and tops in Aug at 337. The size of the last leg is around 81% of leg 1. We're moving in much the same fashion. 1559 would be our 337 in terms of measured move.

Bonds were quite the same also. A sim fractal would have Bonds ready to start another 10pt break in the next few weeks with stocks topping as the Bond break starts.