10 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

i had expected the 20 wk nest of cycle lows to ideally bottom from late last week to early this week based on the average length of recent cycle samples of 20, 10, and 5 wk cycles. it has extended a bit longer but both 20 wk and 10 wk cycles are still in their normal time window for a low while the current 5 wk cycle is (so far) a day longer. whether news induced, new year gyrations, my error, or just the vagaries of cycle analysis, we remain in the time frame for the 20 wk and all smaller cycles to turn up at any moment.

[Swiss Trader]

Based on your work when you go long or short? Do you use wide stops? Albert

[airedale88]

as an intermediate trader i usually do unless i scale in and then place the stop. the envelope system is on a buy, for Hurst analysis there is no confirmed buy signal yet from flds or vtls, and dunnigan's thrust or his one way formula are not giving signals yet. so my plan will be to scale in. as an intermediate trader i usually do unless i scale in and then place the stop. the envelope system is on a buy, for Hurst analysis there is no confirmed buy signal yet from flds or vtls, and dunnigan's thrust or his one way formula are not giving signals yet. so my plan will be to scale in.

[Tor]

thanks for sharing your good work airdale.

[Cirrus]

Many group and several major indexes are at, just below or nearing major LT support. It does look like some sort of IT rally is near. That's unless we have a 1998 style ST liquidity event which causes a sharp selloff.

[ogm]

Many group and several major indexes are at, just below or nearing major LT support. It does look like some sort of IT rally is near. That's unless we have a 1998 style ST liquidity event which causes a sharp selloff.

Either that, or we're going to break those LT supports with a bang as weekly/'monthly charts break down.

Edited by ogm, 04 January 2008 - 03:35 PM.

[sglasson]

Many group and several major indexes are at, just below or nearing major LT support. It does look like some sort of IT rally is near. That's unless we have a 1998 style ST liquidity event which causes a sharp selloff.

agree - trin set up nearly identical too - end of aug 98 formed first low in about a week followed by one mo 61.8 retrace - fyi, the IT rally kicked off after fast drop to a second lower low

I wonder how airedales cycles lined up in 98?

Edited by sglasson, 04 January 2008 - 03:56 PM.

[airedale88]

april 04 to oct 98 4.5 yr cycle bottom to bottom.

[gismeu]

april 04 to oct 98 4.5 yr cycle bottom to bottom.

April 04 plus 4.5 years would imply another low on October 08, wouldn't it?

gis

[boruseek]

April 04 plus 4.5 years would imply another low on October 08, wouldn't it?

It's a typo. I think he meant April 94.