12 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

Something really ugly is going to happen Oct 2008. War with Iran? Some type of attack? A dollar free fall and Argentina style currency crisis?

I do not know exactly what it will be. But it will be.


ts

[Islander]

I have Dow 9700 as probable, IF we do not hold at 11,700 which has major support.

As for Black Swans, I rule nothing out; I will stay short for the immediate future as the highest probability defense for summer and fall 2008.

Edited by Islander, 12 June 2008 - 01:34 AM.

[humble1]

interesting that my time cycles call for an important LOW inoct/08 - not THE low - but a very swing tradeable low. bush2 has been ranting again about bombing iran. he is sounding obsessed again - october would make sense. it would help the repubs in the election.

[BigBadBear]

why not July as that is the 6month from point number 2 which ties in with the 1st pattern ?

[ogm]

Here is SPX monthly chart. Momentum broke across the board, but it still hanging above the moving averages support. So the question is.. will it hold or not. If it doesn't hold its in big trouble.

But then you start looking at other big cap charts and what do you know.. they are already in trouble. Take a look at MMM monthly for example. That thing is heading of a cliff. So SPX is likely to follow.

[TradingUp]

[quote name='tradesurfer' date='Jun 12 2008, 12:45 AM' post='378624']
[size=2]Something really ugly is going to happen Oct 2008. War with Iran? Some type of attack? A dollar free fall and Argentina style currency crisis?

I do not know exactly what it will be. But it will be.


How do you know this, if I may ask?

[eminimee]

anywhere through Aug/oct works for me..for some sort of low
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=9&mn=6&dy=0&id=p28441417764&a=106691891&listNum=-2.png

[eminimee]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=W&yr=9&mn=6&dy=0&i=p28441417764&a=106691891&r=3445.png

[tradesurfer]

why not July as that is the 6month from point number 2 which ties in with the 1st pattern ?

Well the reason why it won't happen in July is because the macd line will not have crossed the zero line yet at that point.

My forecast is based on the historical occurence of the september 2001 attacks and mega price swing down occuring right at the point when monthly MACD crossed at the zero line.

In order for us to cross the zero line this time we are going to need a few months and it should happen Oct 2008, but might be Nov 2008 as well. Either way it just seems hard to deny this conclusion at this point..

The only way I can negate the forecast is if all of a sudden the market stages a really powerful sustained rally for the next 3 or 4 months that lifts the monthly indicators very sharply north.

I guess anything is possible, but that seems very unlikely.

[tradesurfer]

How do you know this, if I may ask?

The reason I know this is because I have a lot of confidence in two things, one, the general reliability of the monthly MACD. The monthly macd when bearish generally starts with slow momentum, but then it gets to an acceleration point. So my confidence is that it will continue in the direction it already is,... bearish.

Secondly, I know this will happen because I know when the macd line crosses the zero line there is 9 times out of 10 a high volatililty type move, and since this is a monthly basis, the move will be large over a monthly time frame. The September 11, 2001 volatility occurred just as the monthly macd line was crossing to the downside through the zero line... I see no reason to believe we will not have a similar high volatility again.

Edited by tradesurfer, 12 June 2008 - 10:09 AM.