12 replies to this topic

[Tor]

It easy. I just entered in the cash 848, my stop is 880 in the cash. The plunge to come makes this: 1. Easy 2. Good risk reward. I wanna see 100 points down from entry here.

[Tor]

We are just enetering a period of forced selling, so short the hell out of this the trend is so strong down no one can hold this together yet.

[eminimee]

You were already short....what happened...? ..and could you show a count and how this wave 3 fits please.

Edited by Teaparty, 27 October 2008 - 03:35 PM.

[fib_1618]

and could you show a count and how this wave 3 fits please

I do believe Tightrope lives in the UK, and may be asleep, so I hope he doesn't mind my responding to your question in the interim.

Here's the count I've been working with...now in V of 3 of (3).

If this is correct, I wouldn't be at all surprised of a still smaller third wave extension lower of this same smaller 5th wave (now in progress). Tomorrow should tell the tale, Wednesday at the very latest, and where the degree of bearish sentiment that many have been looking for should be fully satisfied when Minor wave 3 finishes.

Fib

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p07046171338&a=153146721&r=2957.png

[LarryT]

and could you show a count and how this wave 3 fits please

I do believe Tightrope lives in the UK, and may be asleep, so I hope he doesn't mind my responding to your question in the interim.

Here's the count I've been working with...now in V of 3 of (3).

If this is correct, I wouldn't be at all surprised of a still smaller third wave extension lower of this same smaller 5th wave (now in progress). Tomorrow should tell the tale, Wednesday at the very latest, and where the degree of bearish sentiment that many have been looking for should be fully satisfied when Minor wave 3 finishes.

Fib

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p07046171338&a=153146721&r=2957.png

Looking for 795 as the low for that wave.

[eminimee]

..so at the end of this big 5 wave decline....will that be "A"? That's the problem I have with the first 1,2,....To me, all down moves in the stock market MUST be corrective...unless we can go below 0 ....and that's not possible. Therefore...either the count you have will finish wave "A" or the first 1,2 is A,B....
..I think the latter..

RSP
http://stockcharts.c...9057&r=4609.png

Edited by Teaparty, 27 October 2008 - 07:43 PM.

[eminimee]

PS..Fib..unless you are counting this move as a big C wave...which I can see on oex..but counting on the monthly....we need a good bounce for 4 if 3 is complete...but may not be..
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p57911484910&a=152571484&r=2730.png

Edited by Teaparty, 27 October 2008 - 08:15 PM.

[fib_1618]

Looking for 795 as the low for that wave.

You have noted this target for some time, but if Minute wave 5 extends (as I believe it might), I have an even lower SPX target of 724 based on the technical breakdown of October 6th (and using the measuring gap on the NASDAQ as an intra market reference). There were four price targets actually on a closing basis - the first was 899 (which turned out to be the Minute wave 3 low), 851 (which we attained today), the 724 target, and ultimately, 588 - all on a cash basis.

By the way Larry, congratulations on the timing and the degree of your call of the top last year. I wish you continued success in your trading.

so at the end of this big 5 wave decline....will that be "A"?

A difficult and thought provoking question to answer on several levels. I guess it all depends on when and of what degree this current bear market is in the bigger scheme of things. Some may say that an Elliott bear market started in 1998, others in 2000, and still others in 2007. Each of these beginning points would also have a large amount of evidence to support these same starting points based on which index you look at, and all would fit within the guidelines of Elliott wave labeling for such a high degree event.

So in lieu of placing a label to the current action from the 2007 highs, I will say that the market internals continue to show a market that is in a confirmed bear market that's going to last for some time to come. The whirlpool of financial and geo-polictical events in which we're being sucked into also suggest that a tradable bottom probably won't be seen until spring of next year at the earliest. Sure, there will be reflex rallies along the way, but the A/D data continues to support that the firming up process in which to build a price base to support a rising price structure, from wherever we do find a bottom, will be a time consuming event. How this all fits in the grander scheme of things is still yet to be determined, but experience tells me that we won't have a real longer term handle on a preferred count in which we can all agree upon until sometime in late 2009.

For now, the trend is down, and there's nothing as yet suggesting that this same heaviness is going to abate anytime soon - with the flow of money, the price structure, the momentum of the decline, and the accompanying sentiment readings, confirming that a 3rd wave decline is still in progress.

Fib

[eminimee]

Well...I'm sure Tor will clear things up when he posts his count...

[StillLearnin]

Question to other people interested in elliot.. Can a impulse wave start AND end with an diagonal? wave 1 = leading diagonal and wave 5 ending diagonal? Thanks. SL