3 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

The market is much overbought. My IT trend oscillator points to several months of weakness, preferably until March 09 when LT up move could begin. I would wait until downtrend cross confirmation around 80. Market weakness could start immediately, although several up days are possible which will then lead to several down weeks into Christmas. Note the area where previous reversals took place.

Edited by linrom1, 15 December 2008 - 12:23 AM.

[snorkels4]

maybe it will fiddle around up here a while

of course to do that it will have to break that diamond formation posted by a chartist

personally im waiting for 927

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[IYB]

Interesting perspective. As I view it, the market is at the most IT oversold position that it's been in this entire decade. That, plus, we have massive positive divergences across the board, between the early October versus early December lows. Daily momentum is overbought, as is always the case in the early stages of an IT advance....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p35094915336&a=149688949&r=2620.png

[humble1]

thank you excellent technical analysts; i benefit from your work. fwiw: my current hypothesis is that the market will not provide a worthwhile swing tradable turn until Price moves above the 50dma for a few days and the 50dma turns up and maybe even the 200dma turns up. please alert me when any of those happen, as i do not follow them closely. a portion of the fast $$$ sitting on the sidelines will come into when/if that happens. many swing trade funds use those ma's, though with different filters, such as a requirement that Price be above the XXX/YYdma for Z days. anyway, i do not expect an explosion when we/if get above these, just a steady rise as the $$$ flow in. imho: this scenario is a sine qua non for the next tradable decline, whenever and whereever that may start. comments?

Edited by humble1, 15 December 2008 - 03:47 AM.