7 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Remember this thread:

http://www.traders-t...?...c=98727&hl=

I'm only remind folks of my position, not beating anyone up. Things are about to get DRAMATICALLY better.

Ignore the news. It's history at best. At worst, it's lazy reporting of what folks EXPECT to see, not what's really happening. Regardless, the market discounted that months ago.

Mark

[hiker]

"The most common retracement rate is 50% of a previous trend. A minimum retracement is 1/3rd and a maximum is 2/3rd of a prior trend." IF the retracement back Up of the current downtrend becomes MORE than a 2/3rd retracement of the recent swing declines for SPX, NYA and XAU, then we can consider a reversal of the 2008 downtrend may be CONFIRMED. --------------- updates for Dec 16th just prior to the close, but the closing-basis nos. are not much different - retracements of the most recent swing declines: NYA - 68% represented by today's high SPX - 67% represented by last week's high XAU - 66% represented by today's high retracement calcs above are for these swing declines: SPX swing decline is: $1,007 to $741 NYA swing decline is: $6,352 to $4,607 XAU swing decline is: $153.84 to $63.52 ------- let's see how the next few weekly closes measure up into mid-January

Edited by hiker, 17 December 2008 - 09:23 AM.

[IndexTrader]

One of the problems with "retracements" is that they all depend on the move you're considering with the retracement. For instance, if we take the retracement of the Novemeber decline in the S&P, then we are just over 2/3rd retracement. On the other hand, if we take the September to November decline, we haven't retraced even 1/3rd of that decline as of yet. Likewise, if we take the November-December advance, retracements are normal and well within the 1/3rd-2/3rd parameters, so up to now the advance is still alive according to the parameters you have used. Personally I think retracements are difficult to use. And then too, there is that 78% retracement that crops up periodically to throw everything off. IT

[rigelpug]

I 100% percent agree that things are going to get dramatically better. I just think some of the safe haven dow stocks are going to be tested first.

[Russ]

You are up against Armstrong's Pi Cycle which called the high in the financials virtually to the day in early 2007, the odds are into the billions that the low of this market will not happen until mid 2011. Which begs the question why do you have a Pi sign for traders-talk if you don't believe in the ulitmate pi cycle?

[Shazzam]

Mark, Am i reading your comments correctly that you think the SPX could trade as high as 1400 on this run?

[OEXCHAOS]

I want to be clear, I have no upside target, but I'm VERY open to 1400. I refuse to put any sort of bounds on this move. Certainly, it makes sense that 1400 won't happen easily. I am not, however, willing to commit to that opinion. Look higher until we get some hard evidence of things firming and a bunch more on board. Mark

[CLK]

I have to see a turn in the quarterly before I'm committing. Went 25% long 401k just in case of a big bear market retrace.