a bit of flapjaw on the rising wedge from 11/21/08

that rising wedge IS a beauty and the lower t/l touch a classic, as was elegantly exhibited in an earlier thread. speaking of "classic", doesn't edwards and magee have a chart of the chances that wedges resolve in the direction of the trend? i am embarassed to say my e&m book fell apart long ago. i think it was something like a 60% chance. and then there is the issue of Pattern Morphing (tm: H1). the wedge is probably just a picture of a market which has calmed down and healed after an historic period of distressed selling. that brings us to today. the interesting reversal yesterday fits right in with the H1 theory of the PMA (tm: H1) Day. yesterday WAS a certified PMA ™ Day! with all the focus on the monthly jobs report, major buy and entry programs were put on hold until the numbers come out today. and PMA ™ may well explain wednesday's slump. find high ground: there is a rogue buying wave about to crash ashore. (PMA ™ = point of maximum anxiety) comments? ™

Edited by humble1, 09 January 2009 - 02:42 AM.

what happened to your predection for intel to go higher? why is xmi flat?

russ: INTC to go higher still in effect! that was splendid INTC action: no new low or anywhere near it. considering all the warnings yesterday, now in the market, earnings time should be up ... up ... up! p.s. frankly, i don't give a rat's tail about xmi. ™

Edited by humble1, 09 January 2009 - 03:01 AM.

Keep your eye on the ball, H1... LOL



BW

that rising wedge IS a beauty and the lower t/l touch a classic, as was elegantly exhibited in an earlier thread. speaking of "classic", doesn't edwards and magee have a chart of the chances that wedges resolve in the direction of the trend? i am embarassed to say my e&m book fell apart long ago. i think it was something like a 60% chance.

and then there is the issue of Pattern Morphing (tm: H1). the wedge is probably just a picture of a market which has calmed down and healed after an historic period of distressed selling.

that brings us to today. the interesting reversal yesterday fits right in with the H1 theory of the PMA (tm: H1) Day. yesterday WAS a certified PMA ™ Day! with all the focus on the monthly jobs report, major buy and entry programs were put on hold until the numbers come out today. and PMA ™ may well explain wednesday's slump.

find high ground: there is a rogue buying wave about to crash ashore.


(PMA ™ = point of maximum anxiety)


comments?


™

humble, the bounce of the lower trendline of the rising wedge was too easy and most people now expect the market to continue upwards. For me that was too easy, so I reserve a posibility for the market to open with a gap down down. We shall see today who knows.

nico: very possible, of course. imho, that would be the most bullish resolution. no doubt, the wedge is widely followed and a stoprunner, headfake, with a sharp reversal higher would be about the meanest thAng ms. market could do to bear and weak-kneed bull. but the PMA ™ theory tells us there are very few stops under that t/l as of yesterday. for sure, ms. market (my guru) is about to teach a lesson. ™

Edited by humble1, 09 January 2009 - 05:39 AM.

I have a strong convergence of cycles peaking in 3-4 days, any close up today is a breakout. Then a drop might be B.

Actual, I expect one more touch of the upper trendline on the rising wedge. Probably even some overshoot to 96 or 96.5...then we crash hard through the bottom line. Or we just crash hard today :-P

Bulkowski, Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns says:

As formations go, the rising wedge is one of the poorer performing chart patterns. It sports a failure rate of 24%, which falls to 6% if you wait for a downside breakout. The average decline is 19%... formations with a receding volume trend outperform...

selecto: thank you, sir, for that info and the reference. i need to get that one for my library. well, it's pretty clear the low is and the market will close higher, so i think i will go take a nap. POOF! ™ ™