I have always doubted unemployment as a lagging indicator for the stock market.
Reason---You can not predict the bottom. True for stocks and true for unemployment.
Obama will try to stimulate unemployment with printed bonds given to states and localities.
The new temporary jobs will only fill a partial void of new lay offs in 2009. New State and
government jobs (subsidized with government bonds)---will provide only new jobs that
will be taken away.
After the money is spent and the contracts have been completed------more lay offs.
In the mean time more companies will be laying off people in industries that are not related
to infrastructure---retail, auto, health, finance, tech, bio and etc.
So---long story short-----we do not know where the bottom is in unemployment.
How can you use this as indicator?
Unemployment
Started by
mcleert
, Jan 09 2009 05:14 PM
8 replies to this topic
#2
zigzag
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 05:39 PM
If someone could tell me how to post an excel chart then I will plot unemployment v spx for the last decade.
#3
IYB
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 06:52 PM
The stock market predicts unemployment, not the other way around.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#4
nicolasillo
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 06:58 PM
I use turning points in UR in order to see if the economy enters or exits a recession. That s all.
#5
mcleert
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 07:01 PM
The stock market predicts unemployment, not the other way around.
correct----but you cannot predict any bottom---including unemployment!!!
#6
Kimston
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Posted 09 January 2009 - 09:18 PM
Nicolasillo,
Unfortunately, you may have to recalibrate the Y axis or change to log chart in the next few years.
Kimston
#7
nicolasillo
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Posted 10 January 2009 - 06:09 AM
Nicolasillo,
Unfortunately, you may have to recalibrate the Y axis or change to log chart in the next few years.
Kimston
Kimston,
My y-axis that takes the values from 0-1 is just there so I can show when the economy is in a recession, recession=1 no recession=0.
#8
TTHQ Staff
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Posted 10 January 2009 - 11:39 AM
If someone could tell me how to post an excel chart then I will plot unemployment v spx for the last decade.
Take a screen shot of it... post the image. :-)
If you can't post the image, email it to me and I'll post it for you.
#9
zigzag
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Posted 11 January 2009 - 04:55 PM
If someone could tell me how to post an excel chart then I will plot unemployment v spx for the last decade.
Take a screen shot of it... post the image. :-)
If you can't post the image, email it to me and I'll post it for you.
Thanks. Buy it looks like nico has a pretty chart already. In the future how (specifically) does one post a screenshot?
