Looks like a 4th wave triangle that is almost complete. If this count is correct, crude is topping or should top soon and have another leg down to new lows in early to mid February. This count would be incorrect if triangle wave c is exceeded on the upside (50.47). Relatively low risk short op here.

The next wave down to new lows should put in a low for an intermediate rally - largest since the July 2008 top.

Kimston

hi kimston,

Price-wise a top would fit here. Time-wise may work as well, as a high here mid-cycle (on the 14 day) would spell doom for crude into Feb. sometime. I'm not interested in a short here, just waiting patiently for the long entry which should be a very good trade at some point.

I've switched to USO as the crude futures contracts are all over the place right now month to month. Interesting that USO still can't put a higher high in consecutive 14 day cycle periods (= bear trend still in force until that is reversed). BTW crude has an astro turn date here Jan. 23-26, so your top call may be on the money. Something has to happen in this market ST to change the outlook.

And crude reversing here would not be supportive of equities IMO. I'm flat crude and energies.



cheers,

john

Hi John,
I went short CLH9 this morning at 48.41 as we we touching the upper trendline on my continuation chart; stop at 50.51. If it hasn't topped, it should top no latter than Tues/Wed (unless my E-wave interpretation is off). I too will be looking to accumulate in mid Feb. I have a 531 wk cycle low due 2nd/3rd week of Feb. Of course, longer-term the 5 wv decline from the July top means we will have another wave down to lower lows after the corrective IT rally we are looking for following Feb lows.

Kimston