two important reports to be released at 8:30 EST

the weekly new claims is always a thriller and the consensus (-610,000) is for another horrid one. maybe more important will be the retail sales report, which recently has been worse than expected. the range of expectations (-2.2% to +.03%) for this one is wide and adds to the drama. here is the link to the bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg...ndar/index.html

Edited by humble1, 12 February 2009 - 05:33 AM.

the weekly new claims is always a thriller and the consensus (-610,000) is for another horrid one. maybe more important will be the retail sales report, which recently has been worse than expected. the range of expectations (-2.2% to +.03%) for this one is wide and adds to the drama. here is the link to the bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg...ndar/index.html

Retail Sales

Highlights

Retail sales actually surprised on the upside in January with a rebound and suggesting that the consumer is not yet down for the count. Overall retail sales rebounded 1.0 percent in January, after a 3.0 percent drop in December. The markets had expected a 0.8 percent decrease. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales made a 0.9 percent comeback, after falling 3.2 percent in December. The January ex-auto jump was above the market expectation for a 0.5 percent decrease. Even though gasoline sales did boost spending, this was not the sole factor in overall strength. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales posted a 0.8 percent gain after a dropping 1.8 percent the month before.

By components, numbers were mixed. Strength was seen in nonstore retailers, electronics, gasoline, food & beverages, motor vehicles, clothing, general merchandise, and food services & drinking places. Declines were seen in building materials & garden equipment, furniture, miscellaneous store retailers, and sporting goods.

Overall retail sales on a year-on-year basis in January were down 9.7 percent, compared to down 10.5 percent the previous month. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year pace improved to down 6.6 percent from down 6.9 percent in December.

While up is better than down, a key point to remember about this report is that sales had become very weak, falling each of the last six months of 2008. Nonetheless, equities should like the numbers for January while interest rates should firm.

Jobless Claims

Highlights

Contraction remains steady and severe in the labor market. Initial jobless claims came in at 623,000 in the Feb. 7 week vs. an upward revised 631,000 in the Jan. 31 week (626,000 first reported). The four-week average jumped over the 600,000 level, up 24,000 to 607,500. These are the worst levels since the early 80s.

Continuing claims are at their worst levels yet. Continuing claims for the Jan. 31 week rose 11,000 to a record 4.810 million. The unemployment rate of insured workers is unchanged at 3.6 percent.

Today's report is a reminder to the markets that the jobs market, the very foundation of the economy, continues to contract.