My T.A. says today was bearish, despite any temp. move higher (if any)

Firstly, I took the sage advice and filled the second half of my positions in SDS, DXD, & TWM near the close. I won't be buying any more of these ETFs during this Intermediate Term trade, so I will remain short with stop losses at this weeks lows on all 5 ultrashort Proshares I own.

When I benchmark volume to determine the force of price direction, I do not care whether the bar/candle was red or black or white or green. It's where price is pushing that matters, because price seeks volume.

Yes, prices on SPY, DIA, XLE, IWM, EEM, etc., can retrace more of this weeks decline. However, as I will show in the bottom hourly charts, they have quite a volume hurdle to break through in order to bust topside. In other words, there's no evidence whatsoever that volume wants to come into this market while going higher.

Here's what I posted this afternoon:

We're breaking nearby daily swing points on about everything I'm short with Quality of Volume (accelerating volume). This is bearish.
Price may reject the lows today but we'll be right back down there.

And the SPY broke with Quality of Volume:

Here's the DIA:

And the XLE:

And the IWM:


Finally, looking at the hourly chart, that last hour short covering rally accomplished two tasks: it created a lower low that will get tested, and it created a bearish upthrust relative to the monster high volume bar from Tuesday, soon to be rejected. Each chart is a broken record.
Here's the SPY:

Here's the DIA:

And the XLE:

And the IWM:

Hi Unosuke Appreciate your analysis. As a volume rookie, how do you tell the difference between quality of volume saying retest and a selling climax. Cheers Taz.

Hi Unosuke

Appreciate your analysis.

As a volume rookie, how do you tell the difference between quality of volume saying retest and a selling climax.

Cheers Taz.

If you're referring to days like 10/10/08 and 11/21/08, price has gone parabolic up or down (well beyond standard deviations), and one must look for some price projection its targeting and wait for the violent retrace (dead cat or not). (Edit: forgot to add, highest volume lows will always be retested)

Nothing like that occurred today.

My point wrt benchmarking volume is very simple: one needs to stay on the right side of volume. It doesn't give you the date & time, but where volume is pushing, the market will ultimately go.

Edited by unosuke, 12 February 2009 - 08:20 PM.

Cheers beers Unosuke. Appreciate your time. Taz

Good job Semi. I have no idea whether your volume stuff is useful. But I can see you put some effort into it. I hope it helps you.

volume weighted ma's are in a positive configuration, ndx.

I was watching the volume on the ES and there was the same amount of volume on this half hour reversal stick as on the big volume decline stick. That's worthy of attention. The darned problem is that we're beneath that volume resistance. I think it'll take a bit to get through there and it's hard to want to be aggressively long until we do. On the other hand, the short side is pretty questionable too with that type of volume and all this liquidity about to hit the economy. I'd say that the scale is lightly tilted to the short side here due to trend and breadth, but not for anyone who's not going to watch closely. Oh, and I'm smelling a huge manipulated ramp job coming soon. When NPR starts talking about the markets (they've been ignoring them for like, ever), one has to think that they've been tipped off. I'd not be surprised by a big gap and go one morning that doesn't look back. Mark

I'd not be surprised by a big gap and go one morning that doesn't look back.

Mark

We need a positive close today and one on Monday that totals a break above about 858ish on a close and then we clean this mess up.

[attachment=9770:cleanup_cat.png]

MSS, I can guarantee you that there won't be a positive close on Monday. Maybe in Asia. Maybe in Europe. In the U.S., maybe on Tuesday...

I'd not be surprised by a big gap and go one morning that doesn't look back.

Mark

We need a positive close today and one on Monday that totals a break above about 858ish on a close and then we clean this mess up.

[attachment=9770:cleanup_cat.png]

Yanno, that stuff works geat on mastic that has been ground into the bottom of your bathtub.

Mark