spx 1043: quicker than a duck can snap up a june bug

the boundaries of this chop are 1043@10/14/08 and 741@11/21/08. you are looking DOWN when you should be looking UP! have your bear fun this weekend: disaster lies ahead for the Ursa Camp next week. soon you will be thinking: what WAS i thinking?: spx 700?: no, too high! spx 600?: no, too high!! spx 500?: no, too high!!! spx 400?: no, too high!!!! spx 300?: no, too high!!!!! spx 200?: getting closer, maybe LOW 200's. print out that swenlin-inspired bear exuberant thread from earlier; nail it to your wall; look at it every day; say to yourself: THIS IS WHAT A FINAL LOW LOOKS LIKE. WHAT WAS I THINKING? comments?

Edited by humble1, 14 February 2009 - 07:10 AM.

the boundaries of this chop are 1043@10/14/08 and 741@11/21/08. you are looking DOWN when you should be looking UP!

have your bear fun this weekend: disaster lies ahead for the Ursa Camp next week. soon you will be thinking: what WAS i thinking?:

spx 700?: no, too high!

spx 600?: no, too high!!

spx 500?: no, too high!!!

spx 400?: no, too high!!!!

spx 300?: no, too high!!!!!

spx 200?: getting closer, maybe LOW 200's.

print out that swenlin-inspired bear exuberant thread from earlier; nail it to your wall; look at it every day; say to yourself:

THIS IS WHAT A FINAL LOW LOOKS LIKE. WHAT WAS I THINKING?





comments?

Most of us on this board knows the markets will always behave in the manner which will benefit the fewest possible number of investors. Most of us have felt the pain of being on the wrong side of a trade when the crooks or some media news catches us off guard. Is this the completion of a classic bottoming pattern? Sure feels like it to me. Both Bulls and Bears are giving up money to the crooks daily in certain sectors.


October knocked out many investors who panicked - November shook out those who can handle panic but couldn't handle lower lows - and now, it is inducing impatient investors to sell out of disappointment that the rebound is taking longer than they had hoped. Yeah - add in the news media, the new crew in the White House, and many folks think we are headed much lower. I think it's still a coin toss - but the crooks will try and figure out how to punish the largest part of the herd.

Maybe we will go to 600 or lower before the Bear ends - but 800 must be taken out first. I have a long position for now, because I fear the cash on the sidelines more than the sellers. Can we go to 600 if they keep buying at 800? Hmmmm... We shall see I guess.


Where is the Chief when you need him! I'm still on my buy signal, but next week could end it that's for sure!


Take Care...

Again, this sure feels like a classic bottom pattern because I'm sick and tired of trying to figure out this market. Anyone else feeling my pain?

Oh, for the record - I'm starting to become one of the impatient ones....

I'm asking again.. Humble, what was your record last year and this year? You've posted a crapload of times about market direction, and granted your time frame maybe longer than others here, but are you posting from a position of strength as exemplified by your past performance? In other words, did you make a buttload of $ last year because you timed this properly due to your understanding of market technicals or fundamentals? Is that why you are so confident now? Or is it because you feel it will go up and you have bet a larger than normal amount and you have a need to keep talking your position to feel sane? This should be made clear, because there are noobs on this board and you may hook some noob or another with your view and your past performance may help them understand where you're coming from.

print out that swenlin-inspired bear exuberant thread from earlier; nail it to your wall; look at it every day; say to yourself:

THIS IS WHAT A FINAL LOW LOOKS LIKE. WHAT WAS I THINKING?



comments?

Okay... IMO, you are so wrong.

This stimulus passage on Tuesday will be sold into.

I hope you have tight stops on your longs.

robo: excellent post! patince is required but it often pays off when the underling argument is strong, as is the bullish case now.

dc: first, it is none of your business. second, (but better at first) i am always suspicious of folks who argue market cases by telling us how rich they are or how much money they have made trading. i very seldom believe people who feel the need to do that to bolster themselves. and, besides, it has nothing to do with here and now. i make no claims about my experience or how much i have made or lost trading. if i have made a few pennies, i contribute that to the graciousness of the gods. but good news for you: i am going to hang your bear hide on The Wall of Bear Hides which is almost complete. you will have plenty of company! LOL/ROTF

Edited by humble1, 15 February 2009 - 01:17 AM.

Humble, I am flat right now. Market can scorch and it won't do anything to me if you think I'm short. And you are right about people not having the need to flaunt their performance. But your recent behavior is very odd and I'm trying to understand whether you have very strong conviction based on skill backed by performance or something else. A man will do what a man needs to do. I think I speak for many when I say that your recent behavior is either 1) Annoying or 2) Dangerous for you (not from market direction view as much as risk management) I'm pointing it out from view #2 though I must admit part of it is #1. If the market scorches up next week, I'll be the first to congratulate you. If the market crashes downward I hope whatever you felt on thursday doesn't take you to the hospital.

okay, dc. whatever. i'm an odd duck for sure. but i am after that june bug. peace and good luck to you and yours ... H1