http://www.pbs.org/w...tline/meltdown/
Here's one Nimblebear will like.
BW
Inside the Meltdown
Started by
BWTrader
, Feb 14 2009 10:38 AM
3 replies to this topic
#1
BWTrader
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#2
zigzag
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Posted 14 February 2009 - 12:11 PM
Thanks BW for the heads up. Sounds interesting.
#3
nimblebear
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Welcome to the Dark Side !
Posted 14 February 2009 - 12:50 PM
http://www.pbs.org/w...tline/meltdown/
Here's one Nimblebear will like.
BW
Yep. just look around you folks. dont need to see a PBS special to know whats coming or whats happening. Im not a doom and gloomer. I see things for what they are, not for what I want them to be. I want them to be up and better, but it aint in the cards folks for at least awhile. those rose collored glasses may be pretty for awhile, but occassionally you need to take them off for a bit and let reality smack you upside the head. and knock some sense into you.
OTIS.
#4
BWTrader
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Posted 14 February 2009 - 04:37 PM
Isn't this exactly what one should expect as a bear market is probing for a bottom?
http://www.investope.../Dowtheory3.asp
I just don't know, Nimble, if we've seen the bottom or not. Time will tell on that and I plan to continue doing what I have been doing cuz it's kept me in the game while a lot of others are gone. As for crude & gold here are my thoughts: IMO, if you go with the metal (as an investment) at these levels you are basically placing your chips on total collapse, while if you go with crude you are placing your chips with the 100 year old dance between demand for crude vs supply of crude, with recent history showing an expansion of automobile ownership; albeit with alternative fuels and more efficient power trains being introduced which could curtail demand over time. Even so, old technology tends to live on in many parts of the world long after it is phased out in the major industrialized countries. (http://money.cnn.com...utos.vw.beetle/) Lots of smart folks are working to prevent the collapse of world economies, while rigs are being taken to yard for storage. Track the weekly rig counts at bakerhughes.com and you will see what I'm talking about:
N. American Rotary rig count: This week: 1760, Last week: 1834. No last year on this spreadsheet, but the other spreadsheet shows a 25% reduction in drilling rigs operating this week compared to 1 year ago. So, drilling activity is down probably 15 to 20% worldwide (just guessing) and 25% here in the states. Demand is also down due to the economy and layoffs, etc.
Bottom line: Unless the world is in jeopardy of running out of gold to mine, the metal, IMO is a gamble against all the good folks
working to solve these problems while crude is an investment (which could prove to be ill-timed). Looking out 5 years, my estimation of the maximum potential downside to gold is roughly 70% while the maximum potential downside of crude is about 50%. Max upside potential for gold is probably about double where it is now and max potential upside for crude is probably about 6 to 7 times where it is now. Again, these are just my working numbers & shouldn't be taken all that seriously by anyone else. There are far more reliable sources of such information than myself. I make no claim whatsoever regarding reliability of my numbers.
For the time being, there is an undeniable trend in drilling activity here stateside. Saudi also cancelled plans to open a new field recently and OPEC has successfully reduced output.
Facts, trends, and history appear to be drawing investors to crude while emotions and fear appear to be drawing investors to gold - at least in my view. Indifference seems to be drawing investors to cash (which also is an investment, BTW).
BW
http://www.investope.../Dowtheory3.asp
I just don't know, Nimble, if we've seen the bottom or not. Time will tell on that and I plan to continue doing what I have been doing cuz it's kept me in the game while a lot of others are gone. As for crude & gold here are my thoughts: IMO, if you go with the metal (as an investment) at these levels you are basically placing your chips on total collapse, while if you go with crude you are placing your chips with the 100 year old dance between demand for crude vs supply of crude, with recent history showing an expansion of automobile ownership; albeit with alternative fuels and more efficient power trains being introduced which could curtail demand over time. Even so, old technology tends to live on in many parts of the world long after it is phased out in the major industrialized countries. (http://money.cnn.com...utos.vw.beetle/) Lots of smart folks are working to prevent the collapse of world economies, while rigs are being taken to yard for storage. Track the weekly rig counts at bakerhughes.com and you will see what I'm talking about:
N. American Rotary rig count: This week: 1760, Last week: 1834. No last year on this spreadsheet, but the other spreadsheet shows a 25% reduction in drilling rigs operating this week compared to 1 year ago. So, drilling activity is down probably 15 to 20% worldwide (just guessing) and 25% here in the states. Demand is also down due to the economy and layoffs, etc.
Bottom line: Unless the world is in jeopardy of running out of gold to mine, the metal, IMO is a gamble against all the good folks
working to solve these problems while crude is an investment (which could prove to be ill-timed). Looking out 5 years, my estimation of the maximum potential downside to gold is roughly 70% while the maximum potential downside of crude is about 50%. Max upside potential for gold is probably about double where it is now and max potential upside for crude is probably about 6 to 7 times where it is now. Again, these are just my working numbers & shouldn't be taken all that seriously by anyone else. There are far more reliable sources of such information than myself. I make no claim whatsoever regarding reliability of my numbers. For the time being, there is an undeniable trend in drilling activity here stateside. Saudi also cancelled plans to open a new field recently and OPEC has successfully reduced output.
Facts, trends, and history appear to be drawing investors to crude while emotions and fear appear to be drawing investors to gold - at least in my view. Indifference seems to be drawing investors to cash (which also is an investment, BTW).
BW
