Interesting Targets based on Nov Lows

Chart below shows that at Nov lows the Market spiked 24% below its 50 ema and 37.49% below its 200 ema, if we apply those same percentages (assuming of course we get the same degree of capitulation) to the current values of the EMA's you get a target of 628 for the market using 24% below current 50 ema and a target of 638 using 37.5% below 200 ema......I guess you can add these to all of the other targets, of note is that during the 2000-2003 Bear the percentages got worse at each consecutive bottom but were still higher than what we saw in November

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t70149470035&r=6334.png

Edited by Woody, 03 March 2009 - 11:54 AM.

Chart below shows that at Nov lows the Market spiked 24% below its 50 ema and 37.49% below its 200 ema, if we apply those same percentages (assuming of course we get the same degree of capitulation) to the current values of the EMA's you get a target of 628 for the market using 24% below current 50 ema and a target of 638 using 37.5% below 200 ema......I guess you can add these to all of the other targets, of note is that during the 2000-2003 Bear the percentages got worse at each consecutive bottom but were still higher than what we saw in November

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t70149470035&r=6334.png

after a huge wave down in oct, any new wave down with the same degree of capitulation is gonna be a higher low. A lower cash will probably create divergences, which is where we are now. Clearly no buy divergences have triggered on any of the higher time frames yet. Stay tuned.

see the lower portion of this closing-basis chart, fyi -

http://www.box.net/shared/2oknl5oqt4

see the lower portion of this closing-basis chart, fyi -

http://www.box.net/shared/2oknl5oqt4

Hiker I look at those regularly, problem is they can bounce along the bottom while the market falls, maybe good to indicate the potential for a long setup but only in concert with other indicators

CW