Here are my thoughts

We have a micro rally today. We may get a micro rally tomorrow. And the day after. You are being sucked into the eye of the hurricane without even knowing it. Many of you bulls who were stopped out will jump back in like you missed a 100 year bottom. This is where the danger starts. The next downleg will totally destroy the bull's morale to the breaking point. This is how psychology works. I am seeing it and I cannot believe it. You know the perma bulls here who were under pressure.. they will be back before the next leg down starts. It is inevitable. And the fear that will be driven into their minds will make them 1/2 insane and they will not touch stocks for a very long time thereafter. One must ask themself.. do you fear missing the bottom or do you fear going bankrupt and not being able to feed your kids? We are at one of those rare junctions where I think amateurs should sit the hell out because you do not know how to navigate this environment when you think you do. Good luck. And yes I am warning early, but I will warn again when I see the markers I want to see.

We have a micro rally today.

We may get a micro rally tomorrow.

And the day after.

You are being sucked into the eye of the hurricane without even knowing it.

Many of you bulls who were stopped out will jump back in like you missed a 100 year bottom. This is where the danger starts.

The next downleg will totally destroy the bull's morale to the breaking point. This is how psychology works. I am seeing it and I cannot believe it.

You know the perma bulls here who were under pressure.. they will be back before the next leg down starts. It is inevitable. And the fear that will be driven into their minds will make them 1/2 insane and they will not touch stocks for a very long time thereafter.

One must ask themself.. do you fear missing the bottom or do you fear going bankrupt and not being able to feed your kids? We are at one of those rare junctions where I think amateurs should sit the hell out because you do not know how to navigate this environment when you think you do.

Good luck. And yes I am warning early, but I will warn again when I see the markers I want to see.

I absolutely agree with you. Just rolled over a 6 month CD at 1.7% and most of the rest is in Treasuries Only Account. I have only about 5% of savings in stocks right now- all paying dividends - or increasing in price - and are unlikely to go away as a company in my lifetime - AA, FCX, PFE, GEC, MO, MT, CEF (my only real safety net stock) - and two wild cards APL and LINE - which both pay big dividends and hav'nt reduced them yet but then I don't have that much money in them. Every economy needs a Depression or very deep recession every 30 years to re-set excesses - thanks to Nixon taking us off any precious metal standard - he prevented a depression in the 1970's - which would have hurt but once through it - would have put us on a more stable future going forward. Now we have hit the inevitable brick wall - TV reported 30 Trillion lost in stockmarkets world wide - thats money that has died and gone to money heaven never to return and cannot be used to service any debt much less retire it. Then there is the over 100 Trillion dollar derivatives market, and the nearly $200 trillion debt securities markets - these have to go up in smoke too and there isn't enough gold, silver and platinum in the world at current values to even come close to collateralizing this stuff. 10 years ago a few of us calculated - that if we sold the US coast to coast excluding national parks and highways - that the US would still owe (including debt, unfunded liabilities, etc) close to 50 trillion and that does not include any private or business debt. Its got to be 10 times that amount now or more. The entire system is totally broken - perhaps a biblical solution is the only hope - total debt forgiveness and start over.

Today is not a rally..... Us Bulls are looking for at least a two week rally here based upon technical indicators that have worked in forming other bottoms. Yes, it seems that there is a chance of a continued sell-off like there always is at bottoms with the micro-rally. I don't see the internals today or the market action today being bullish, but I do see a good probabililty of a bounce if you still believe in historical statistical market trading.... Best Regards, Barry

We have a micro rally today.

We may get a micro rally tomorrow.

And the day after.

You are being sucked into the eye of the hurricane without even knowing it.

Many of you bulls who were stopped out will jump back in like you missed a 100 year bottom. This is where the danger starts.

The next downleg will totally destroy the bull's morale to the breaking point. This is how psychology works. I am seeing it and I cannot believe it.

You know the perma bulls here who were under pressure.. they will be back before the next leg down starts. It is inevitable. And the fear that will be driven into their minds will make them 1/2 insane and they will not touch stocks for a very long time thereafter.

One must ask themself.. do you fear missing the bottom or do you fear going bankrupt and not being able to feed your kids? We are at one of those rare junctions where I think amateurs should sit the hell out because you do not know how to navigate this environment when you think you do.

Good luck. And yes I am warning early, but I will warn again when I see the markers I want to see.

u pretty short then?

Today is not a rally..... Us Bulls are looking for at least a two week rally here based upon technical indicators that have worked in forming other bottoms. Yes, it seems that there is a chance of a continued sell-off like there always is at bottoms with the micro-rally. I don't see the internals today or the market action today being bullish, but I do see a good probabililty of a bounce if you still believe in historical statistical market trading....

Best Regards,

Barry

What indicators ?

here is the news for the day and yet the bears cant drive down the market General Motors Corp., surviving with federal loans, said its February U.S. sales plummeted 53 percent as the recession pushed industrywide purchases toward the lowest in almost three decades. Sales tumbled 48 percent for Ford Motor Co., 40 percent for Toyota Motor Corp., 38 percent for Honda Motor Co. and 37 percent for Nissan Motor Co. GM said it plans to build 34 percent fewer vehicles in North America next quarter, and Ford announced a 38 percent reduction from a year earlier.

Edited by trioderob, 03 March 2009 - 03:46 PM.

you know i woke up today and i said....i could use a good shaft...come on mkt lets step out side and give me a good shaft

here is the news for the day and yet the bears cant drive down the market


General Motors Corp., surviving with federal loans, said its February U.S. sales plummeted 53 percent as the recession pushed industrywide purchases toward the lowest in almost three decades.

Sales tumbled 48 percent for Ford Motor Co., 40 percent for Toyota Motor Corp., 38 percent for Honda Motor Co. and 37 percent for Nissan Motor Co.

GM said it plans to build 34 percent fewer vehicles in North America next quarter, and Ford announced a 38 percent reduction from a year earlier.

trioderob, i was long at one point today, and have to say its not a bullish day...breadth 1:2, vix down, da da da da da.

I love it. The market is closing red after a 4% down day at yet another 12 year low... and the attitude is " You bears can't drive down the market" .... talk about delusion.

Today is not a rally..... Us Bulls are looking for at least a two week rally here based upon technical indicators that have worked in forming other bottoms. Yes, it seems that there is a chance of a continued sell-off like there always is at bottoms with the micro-rally. I don't see the internals today or the market action today being bullish, but I do see a good probabililty of a bounce if you still believe in historical statistical market trading....

Best Regards,

Barry

What indicators ?

Here are some of my bullish indicators...

4-day TRIN and 4-day Nasdaq TRIN are high and buy territory ( short-term indicator )
Positive Divergences on both NYSE and NASDAQ McClellan
Positive Divergence on $SPX:$VXO
McClellan is still over below -25 on NASD and -100 on NYSE after breaking -50 and -200 respectfully.
< 10% of NAS100 stocks are above their 50-day MA. Market usually bounces at these levels even in bear markets.

I also use mechanical signals on decisionpoint.com

SPX Mechanical Signal shows 90% of stocks below their 32-day averge PMO. This shows massive selling has occured which is good for a bottom.


There are a couple other signals I use on decisionpoint, but this shows massive capitulation has already taken place. The idea that one of these signals does not constitute a strong buy, but with so many signals hitting this level their is a higher probability of a bottom. I have narrowed my range on creating a buy and sell signals with these signals.

At the moment I need over 7 short term buy signals to create a market buy. When I average only 1 buy signal, it will signal a sell with the current strong negative trend. If the trend improves the more sell signals will be needed to generate a sell.

Barry