Jump to content



Photo

Just wondering...is this


  • Please log in to reply
3 replies to this topic

#1 Tor

Tor

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,647 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 04:21 PM

Feels like it and just throwing it out there. Just been watching the screen and the relentless selling. Something is clearly broken. We do have a QE decision by the BoE this week or next, and they actively monetise the debt. I dont know, maybe some relief, but in reality the trend is short and strong for now. Cheers.
Observer

The future is 90% present and 10% vision.

#2 maineman

maineman

    maineman

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,987 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 04:46 PM

its simple, really. When the market is trending strongly, the trend is your friend. Sounds so simple it is often ignored. This particular trend has been fairly straight forward. Negative breadth. Negative summation index. Rising new lows. Even the back up indicators, such as technical charts are all pointing DOWN. Often people look at charts, particularly oscillators, and "see" a wave type pattern that allows you to buy the lows, sell the highs. The problem is with a strong trend the indicators go to flat-line and begin to lose their usefullness. We are in a period of "indictoritis" or sick indicators, particularly fast stochastics, momentum, etc. as they are "oversold" but are not reliable in telling you that its safe to go back into the water. No reason for bottom picking. Just follow the trend, keep your stops in. IF the trend reverses, so be it. Then we trade that way. But, as I asked a week ago, show me a bullish looking chart and I'll reconsider. Best of luck. Very ugly close today. TOmorrow looks, well, interesting? mm
He who laughs laughs laughs laughs.

My Blog -Maineman Market Advice

#3 JimBecker17

JimBecker17

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 160 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 04:58 PM

Hopefully it is wave 5 slow grinding move that will cause eventual capitulation. Think the leg down into October most Elliott people would consider wave 3. If this is wave 3 now we have a long way to go, hope not. Some conditions are in place for a Bear bottom, but certainly not Demand. That seems to need Price and interest from participants.
Bullish Equity service: WM Research, LLC using IBD / Wyckoff principles realtime.

#4 Tor

Tor

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,647 posts

Posted 03 March 2009 - 05:21 PM

its simple, really. When the market is trending strongly, the trend is your friend. Sounds so simple it is often ignored. This particular trend has been fairly straight forward. Negative breadth. Negative summation index. Rising new lows. Even the back up indicators, such as technical charts are all pointing DOWN.

Often people look at charts, particularly oscillators, and "see" a wave type pattern that allows you to buy the lows, sell the highs. The problem is with a strong trend the indicators go to flat-line and begin to lose their usefullness.

We are in a period of "indictoritis" or sick indicators, particularly fast stochastics, momentum, etc. as they are "oversold" but are not reliable in telling you that its safe to go back into the water.

No reason for bottom picking. Just follow the trend, keep your stops in. IF the trend reverses, so be it. Then we trade that way.

But, as I asked a week ago, show me a bullish looking chart and I'll reconsider.

Best of luck. Very ugly close today. TOmorrow looks, well, interesting?

mm

Very well said. All the indicators showed oversold and extreme readings never been seen before, meaning more buying and the market still falls. Strong trend so far.
Observer

The future is 90% present and 10% vision.