Ugly Close

The futures sold down over 7 points immediately after the closing bell. The futures have now opened up down another 4 points or so, so as of 5:30 PM EST we are about 15 points below fair value in the SnP. And that comes after significant selling. So here's a guy going out on a limb: If nothing happens between now and tomorrow's opening bell to soothe the markets we get a nasty plunge that should scare the bejeezis out of anyone left who has not had the bejeezis scared out them. And if that plunge doesn't lead to a snap back, I'm going to have to reset my charts. Kind of like Spinal Tap. The guy who had the amplifier that went to "11". "Why not ten? he was asked. After a moment of dumb silence he answered, "because it goes to 11. Its better" (or something to that effect) So now I'm going to need charts that go below zero. mm

. . .

If nothing happens between now and tomorrow's opening bell to soothe the markets we get a nasty plunge that should scare the bejeezis out of anyone left who has not had the bejeezis scared out them. And if that plunge doesn't lead to a snap back, I'm going to have to reset my charts.

. . .

How is the current I.T. move so different from September 19th to October 10th 2008 (link)? Why do you think one more nasty plunge will do the trick, as opposed to several (dozen) more?

(edit: Let me add, SPX spent 3 months in a sideways consolidation between roughly 800-900. Didn't the market build enough "cause" for such a violent mark down?)

Edited by unosuke, 03 March 2009 - 05:48 PM.

mm,

This came across like I'm attacking you here. Apologies. You've been bearish and right.

Could you elaborate on what indicates one more plunge that scares the jeebuz out of everyone ought to do it for this move downtown?

Advance thanks.

Edited by unosuke, 03 March 2009 - 06:18 PM.

It appears to me that a washout is badly needed, it looks like the legions of bottom pickers are going to get punished and this is required if we are going to stage a real rally. Nothing will scare people more than a profound drop and apparently it has to be somewhere on the order of 10%. clearly yesterday's move did nothing.

"what it might mean"? intervention ........like on 10-8-08? we shall see fwiw fwiw monk

One reason why I remain bearish for the I.T.:

Uno.... I think your work is great. I did not say that the market should or would bounce. I was saying that IF it can't bounce from these kind of oversold levels (where we are now or might be after tomorrow's open) then its going to get even uglier. That's all I was saying. You are right... I've been bearish and right for a long time. I use price primarily. As I noted in a post a couple of months ago I discussed classic chart analysis that shows that when a market is in a consolidation and then breaks out of that consolidation, the move is usually equal to the size of the consolidation. In the current case, the SnP was stuck between 950 and 750 for awhile, so you can argue we are going to 550, since we broke out to the bottom. No need for volume analysis in this type of chart reading. mm