SPX... Bounce territory

The potential's here now to set in some MCO divergences... definitely not a place to put on new shorts.

definitely not a place to put on new shorts.

You'd be surprized. A lot of shocks have niuce bearish flags forming on daily charts. HES is a good example. Once they all break down, then maybe we're due for a bounce, provided we get some fear going. But at this point looks lower to me.

Agreed, OGM-the lack of fear here is unreal. Maybe another 25 or 35 spx points down tomorrow wakes someone up. The NYSE MCO had a small point change signaling a large move soon-I think the first big move is down-then up. I saw no capitulation or fear today, without them, there is no bottom-short term or otherwise. Arch-the divergent MCO low post November had promise as well-till it got smoked. Price cures divergence.

Edited by thespookyone, 03 March 2009 - 09:28 PM.

There's not a total lack of fear from my measures. Looking at the p/c by itself then maybe. But then again oex p/c has bean hiding mostly under 1.0 for over a bliven month. Here is a chart that takes into account the p/c and if I were a betting man I'd say the end of the world is not gonna happen tomorrow. I can't help but think how U-G-L-Y that close L-O-O-K-E-D.

definitely not a place to put on new shorts.

You'd be surprized. A lot of shocks have niuce bearish flags forming on daily charts. HES is a good example. Once they all break down, then maybe we're due for a bounce, provided we get some fear going. But at this point looks lower to me.

ogm-

when you state there is no "fear" I dont get it.

with the vix high, average joes scared out of their minds to move 401k money into stocks, all time spx lows from 20 years ago being hit, put/call prices thru the roof and the big boyz crying that it is the "end of the world"

what would it take for you see real fear ?


to me today WAS fear by the big boyz

Edited by trioderob, 03 March 2009 - 10:19 PM.

There is no fear? What??? Velocity of market drop is on record pace since the Great Depression and there is no fear? SPX has dropped 600 points in 6 months ...is that any sign of bravery by investors? Does any one recall that rate of drop from memory? All I hear on Radio and TV is "just save your cash, wait for the market to stabilize". Well that doesn'nt sound like lack of fear. If there was no fear, bargain hunters would be piling on!!!

There is no fear? What???

Velocity of market drop is on record pace since the Great Depression and there is no fear?
SPX has dropped 600 points in 6 months ...is that any sign of bravery by investors?
Does any one recall that rate of drop from memory?

All I hear on Radio and TV is "just save your cash, wait for the market to stabilize".
Well that doesn'nt sound like lack of fear.

If there was no fear, bargain hunters would be piling on!!!

I think what he's referring to is despite all the recent price action, there are a lot of people trying to call/pick the bottom or "tradeable bounce". People here and many others on different forums are getting more bullish and trying to call the turning point of a once in a generation bear bomb. I appreciate your contrarian stance, but only when the market has been down 20 or so days in a row on heavy volume and you bottom pickers are curled under the table in the fetal position, will we be in any position to talk about a meaningfull rally.

All the fradie cats are long gone. The only people buying stocks are short covering traders, Warren Buffett and the President.

I disagree redwraith. Final bottom is marked by apathy not capitulation. The capitulation occured at the Oct low. If we get heavy volume and 20 down days in a row, then it wont be the final bottom. The bullish CPC readings are not welcome but then we had similar readings back in Sep 2001 and oct 2002. My theory is that at the final bottom the traditional dumb money indicators become smart money indicators because the dumb have no money left to influence such data series. While I am down rather badly last few weeks, my longs are medium-term trades and I remain well ahead of where i was back on Nov 21. I am looking for the SPX to finally bottm 450ish 2010 or 2012 and the ASX 200 here in OZ at 2700ish or 1300ish, currently 3166 but not before one major rally of epic proportions. Taz

All the fradie cats are long gone.
The only people buying stocks are short covering traders, Warren Buffett and the President.

I agree and some of them switched to buy mode tonight after seeing sellers dried up yesterday.

Edited by redfoliage2, 04 March 2009 - 04:33 AM.