Looking at the SPX hourly

No change there. Still downtrending. But the potential for a divergent low on hourly exists for the first time since we broke down from 780. So essentially, we are close to some kind of VST bottom, if we can make a new low tommorow morning with divergences holding. Otherwise, the bulls would have blown it for the umteenth time. What's new there ? It's a bear market. As for my trades today, i had two stop-outs for a net loss of 10 SPX points. Interestingly, all my 4 swing trades from Jan top started with 10 points loss on the probes, but the subsequent trades ended up gaining 30-75 points. If i get a proper entry i will short again tommorow for this final plunge. If we gap-down hard, i will stand aside.

Edited by NAV, 04 March 2009 - 10:41 PM.

Well put. I agree with the approach, price wise, as well. I'm short from todays top due to some useless ewave, and trying to predict future price . If we gap down hard, I'll cash in-if not, I may trade in and out looking for a nice spot. BUT-it's kinda like the Aerosmith song-I don't wanna miss a thing. My belief is there is a SOLID down move left, and all the market is doing here is quibbling about where we retrace to before it happens. I respect divergence, but I must say that this market has shown the strength to smoke the best of it-price has a way of helping that out. As you have mentioned several times, and what has been incredibly important to me, is when the divergent lows were broken on the NYSE MCO's it spoke volumes, but very few listened. Man, for a while, that WAS some nice possible divergence. What no one seems to be considering here is the position of the all time lows-should they get broken, the market will develope a different character, imho. I see us not at a low for a number of reasons-one of which is the lack of worry by bulls. We rally 150 points after a prolonged tanking, and the board shows posts of multi week rallys, IT rallys, and more of "THE bottom", oh my. Equity PC shows call buyers all the way down-like the market just has to have bottomed-every day. The A/D line was nothing special today, and that showed up in the last half hour-although bulls will tell you wht giving up half the rally in twenty minutes was "bullish". If my karma is any good, I would request a zero line test here on the same kind of choppy, forced action we saw today-I believe I know what to do with that.

Edited by thespookyone, 04 March 2009 - 11:35 PM.

Well put. I agree with the approach, price wise, as well. I'm short from todays top due to some useless ewave, and trying to predict future price . If we gap down hard, I'll cash in-if not, I may trade in and out looking for a nice spot. BUT-it's kinda like the Aerosmith song-I don't wanna miss a thing. My belief is there is a SOLID down move left, and all the market is doing here is quibbling about where we retrace to before it happens. I respect divergence, but I must say that this market has shown the strength to smoke the best of it-price has a way of helping that out. As you have mentioned several times, and what has been incredibly important to me, is when the divergent lows were broken on the NYSE MCO's it spoke volumes, but very few listened. Man, for a while, that WAS some nice possible divergence. What no one seems to be considering here is the position of the all time lows-should they get broken, the market will develope a different character, imho. I see us not at a low for a number of reasons-one of which is the lack of worry by bulls. We rally 150 points after a prolonged tanking, and the board shows posts of multi week rallys, IT rallys, and more of "THE bottom", oh my. Equity PC shows call buyers all the way down-like the market just has to have bottomed-every day. The A/D line was nothing special today, and that showed up in the last half hour-although bulls will tell you wht giving up half the rally in twenty minutes was "bullish". If my karma is any good, I would request a zero line test here on the same kind of choppy, forced action we saw today-I believe I know what to do with that.

And remember the Nasdaq still has unfinished business of breaking the Nov 08 lows. As for TT, it has become post-june 2006 in reverse. There was desperation for a top then. Now there is desperation for a bottom. I don't see it any other way.

Edited by NAV, 04 March 2009 - 11:42 PM.

(guns food and ammo, isnt that your quote NAV?):

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

(guns food and ammo, isnt that your quote NAV?):

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

Sorry that's SemiBizz's copyright. But i am leaning towards it.

No change there. Still downtrending. But the potential for a divergent low on hourly exists for the first time since we broke down from 780. So essentially, we are close to some kind of VST bottom, if we can make a new low tommorow morning with divergences holding. Otherwise, the bulls would have blown it for the umteenth time. What's new there ? It's a bear market.

As for my trades today, i had two stop-outs for a net loss of 10 SPX points. Interestingly, all my 4 swing trades from Jan top started with 10 points loss on the probes, but the subsequent trades ended up gaining 30-75 points. If i get a proper entry i will short again tommorow for this final plunge. If we gap-down hard, i will stand aside.

Nav, sweet avatar - you sure know how to pick 'em.

Why woudl you stand aside on the gap down? Looks llike you are on the few anticipating the final plunge that I feel must still happen, unless it is a catastrophic gap down why would you not capitalize?

Hey NAV-Just sold the 74 SPY puts I bought yesterday at 3.60 for 6.10. Don't know who caught that knife-but I tip my hat to them. Will step aside and look for entries either way now.