A New Record?

From this morning's Wall Street Sentiment Daily: AAII reported 18.92% Bulls and 70.27% Bears vs. 24.30% Bulls and 55.10% Bears last week. Wow. That's a huge jump in Bears. This is more than I've ever recollect seeing. More than any time since well before the Crash of '87. This may be a record reading. Obviously this is in Buy territory but more importantly, this has to be viewed as a short-term Buy signal. Just remember the amplitude of the bounce is in no way correlated to the percentage of Bears. Longer term, the accumulated Bearishness can support a long rally, once one gets going.

I wonder if there are also record breaking shorts in the market right now. I doubt.

What are the assets in the inverse ETF's? How much leverage? I dunno. There are more amateurs more able to short more stock than ever before in history. I'm not sure how to measure it, but it could be a Bear killer (just as the lack of an uptick rule has been a Bull killer for the past year plus). Mark

What are the assets in the inverse ETF's? How much leverage?

I dunno. There are more amateurs more able to short more stock than ever before in history. I'm not sure how to measure it, but it could be a Bear killer (just as the lack of an uptick rule has been a Bull killer for the past year plus).

Mark

There is an inverse of that, more people can go long easier than any time before. There are as many long etfs, if not more, than there are inverses and people still naturally like to bet with the market not against it.

Obviously this is in Buy territory but more importantly, this has to be viewed as a short-term Buy signal.

Mark, what's your "short-term Buy signal"? In days term? TIA

When the short to long ratio gets to 15/85 then we have an immediate trend reversal. When it is around 20/80 we are very near a trend reversal. That's the rule.

What are the assets in the inverse ETF's? How much leverage?

I dunno. There are more amateurs more able to short more stock than ever before in history. I'm not sure how to measure it, but it could be a Bear killer (just as the lack of an uptick rule has been a Bull killer for the past year plus).

Mark

There is an inverse of that, more people can go long easier than any time before. There are as many long etfs, if not more, than there are inverses and people still naturally like to bet with the market not against it.

Nope. It's not an inverse.

It was ALWAYS easy to get long. Cheap commissions happened 15 years ago. Now, you can get short in your pension/ira with ease. Never before. You could always go long before but not short. Long etf's are just like mutual funds were before. They just make for efficiency, not a real change in market complexion. Not like shorting in your IRA, cheaply and easily.

Mark

Obviously this is in Buy territory but more importantly, this has to be viewed as a short-term Buy signal.

Mark, what's your "short-term Buy signal"? In days term? TIA

I'd say today or tomorrow starts at least a couple day rally.

Where you catch the knife is up to you.

Mark

When the short to long ratio gets to 15/85 then we have an immediate trend reversal. When it is around 20/80 we are very near a trend reversal. That's the rule.

100% agree with your avatar. We are just one giant plunge away. Long live the bull!

Obviously this is in Buy territory but more importantly, this has to be viewed as a short-term Buy signal.

Mark, what's your "short-term Buy signal"? In days term? TIA

I'd say today or tomorrow starts at least a couple day rally.

Where you catch the knife is up to you.

Mark

Since when 'a couple day rally' worth mentioning? We are in desperate time, aren't we?