Recession vs. Depression

In simple terms, I was taught that a recession is a contraction in a limited part of the economy (i.e. Texas) lasting 6 months or less and a depression is a contraction in the economy (the world for example) lasting 6 months more or less. A great depression is a depression (world wide) lasting 18 months or more. In my opinion we are in a great depression and won't come out of it until around 2014 with a second dip down into 1016 which will last for about a decade.

You guys probably have read this but I will cite it anyway
http://www.financial.../2010/0304.html

Mary Anne

Thank you for this, Mary Ann. It shouild give pause to those who blithely assume that any coming "correction" during the present rally will automatically stop at some predetermined "level of support".

The housing situation is hazardous and could go in a fade anytime.

The longer range problem is debt levels that destroy confidence in the currency and ability to pay our debt

Jim Puplava is a fine money manager/historian, but he is often too negative.

His Peak Oil scenario could be the event to fear. It could end any recovery, however weak or strong.


Becoming too bearish is a danger.

Best, Islander

Disagree entirely. It is the OVERABUNDANCE of oil we should fear, bringing prices down and contributing mightily to the current deflation. What use is a world swirling in oil if the populace is so broke they have no need for it?

The housing situation is hazardous and could go in a fade anytime.

The longer range problem is debt levels that destroy confidence in the currency and ability to pay our debt

Jim Puplava is a fine money manager/historian, but he is often too negative.

His Peak Oil scenario could be the event to fear. It could end any recovery, however weak or strong.


Becoming too bearish is a danger.

Best, Islander

Islander, there is no such thing as peak oil, there is plenty of $200+ oil in the planet, there is just a scarcity of cheap oil.... we have a Gazillion barrels of reserves in the Orinoco Valley ( Tar Sands) In Canada (Tar Sands) , In other parts pf the world (Tar Sands) , in the US (Shale Oil), not to mention the traditional oil of which there is still tons to be discovered around Cuba, Haiti, and other places in the world. It'll just cost a bit or alot more to dig it out. Contrary to traditional wisdom, OIL does not come from dead tissue of ancient creatures, that somehow turned into OIL, it sips out from complex chemical processes in the centre of the earth and it tends to sip out where there is geological faults, etc. Ditto for Nat Gas.

GS.

Disagree entirely. It is the OVERABUNDANCE of oil we should fear, bringing prices down and contributing mightily to the current deflation. What use is a world swirling in oil if the populace is so broke they have no need for it?

I agree, oil shortages have been manufactured through my life time to keep the price up. We sell west Texas Crude and Alaskan Crude to Japan and China - and prohibit its use in this country because of sulfur content - INSTEAD OF JUST REMOVING THE SULFUR. Oil can also be manufactured from algae farms - don't need the foraminifera- and its pure and its cheap to grow algae - so you think the oil companies are jumping on this - ya right? In grad school I used to have to go through core samples to ID foram fossils for the oil companies - sent many samples back that said "go for it" in Texas areas as well as LA basin and many unknown areas (they didn't always ID the areas they came from). They know about many areas that should be explored but are not. We are the Middle east of Natural Gas deposits - easy to tap and distribute and cheap. The gas deposits in Anderson Indiana - my home town - was what kept GM going in it's early years. The gas leaked into the White River and there was a constant burn in the middle of the river for decades. Its just "politics" - please don't censur me Mark - but THEY (whoever they are) want to keep us in fear of running out of energy because we will all die if we don't do what THEY want. I'm too old and too tired to bother playing their games any more. Just want to move, get some land, and get off the grid. Those Attack Chickens are becoming more and more attractive. Just one other thought - in my opinion - we are not the most intelligent species to occupy the earth - the cockroaches have won and have lasted a lot longer than we have. When food is scarce - they stop reproducing and eat each other. When food is plentiful, they breed and eat the food. Sounds like a more intelligent species to me.
Mary Anne