fwiw. it retraced 50% of the decline and looks like it topped to me.
if correct that means the major indices will follow shortly
well c
g
i think thats the top in the xau
Started by
gannman
, Mar 08 2010 10:44 AM
10 replies to this topic
#1
gannman
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 10:44 AM
feeling mellow with the yellow metal
#2
dougie
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 11:23 AM
how do you see this retrace? besides being over? what are you looking for next?
#3
SilentOne
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 12:01 PM
how do you see this retrace? besides being over? what are you looking for next?
dougie,
I continue to see HUI 323 +/- 20 (major Gann level in my work) sometime this year. That would mark 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycle lows. Then a big rally into 2011. Gold may be the better play, more conservative play as this low is made. What continues to elude me is timeframe for the low.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#4
gannman
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 12:14 PM
doug
i agree with john. if u look the index rallied from 150 to 516 or 366 points.
a 50 % retrace would take us to 333 right in his support range.
as far as timing i would expect the bottom to come in early to mid
april but well just have to see it in real time
g
feeling mellow with the yellow metal
#5
gannman
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 12:18 PM
doug
i agree with john. if u look the index rallied from 150 to 516 or 366 points.
a 50 % retrace would take us to 333 right in his support range.
as far as timing i would expect the bottom to come in early to mid
april but well just have to see it in real time
g
doug
i gave u the numbers for the hui instead of xau same difference fwiw
feeling mellow with the yellow metal
#6
SilentOne
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 12:32 PM
hi g,
hi g,
I agree. I should have mentioned the 50% rule, which does give confluence at the 323 level I mentioned.
As for timing, my thought is if the low comes in April, then that would be the low for the year. If April makes a high, then the low comes later in late summer/fall.
cheers,
john
i agree with john. if u look the index rallied from 150 to 516 or 366 points.
a 50 % retrace would take us to 333 right in his support range.
as far as timing i would expect the bottom to come in early to mid
april but well just have to see it in real time
hi g,
I agree. I should have mentioned the 50% rule, which does give confluence at the 323 level I mentioned.
As for timing, my thought is if the low comes in April, then that would be the low for the year. If April makes a high, then the low comes later in late summer/fall.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#7
dougie
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 01:18 PM
thanks both:
john; in either case you waiting to see what april brings or will you know b4 then?
#8
SilentOne
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 02:48 PM
hi dougie,
I am very tempted to go after PM shorts here. But I will wait and my ultimate preference is to go long an April low if it comes. So generally I will just wait. Conversely, if PMs grind up here in a zigzag pattern to an April high, I'll wait for the high and look for the short. The next few weeks are key.
Bottomline is I want to be a long term buyer of gold in the $1000 - 1050 range if possible.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#9
dougie
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 06:30 PM
1050 gold and 323 HUI would be quite a gift divergence
#10
goldswinger
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Posted 08 March 2010 - 08:45 PM
1050 gold and 323 HUI would be quite a gift divergence
That's where we are going at least IMO. SPY is finishing a B wave up, a big plunge follows along with PM's.
GS.
